US Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Since 2014

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, the weakest reading since April 2014. Both current conditions and the six-month outlook worsened, and the print landed far below the reading near 89 that forecasters had built in.

Households spent the survey window staring at fuel prices. By the time the report came out on September 29, oil was slipping and the New York Fed’s president was telling markets there was no rush to hike again in a hurry.

A 6.7-Point Drop Leaves Confidence at 81.9

The Conference Board said its headline index, scaled so 1985 equals 100, fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 from 88.6 in August. The Present Situation Index, which tracks how people judge business and jobs right now, retreated 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index, which captures the six-month outlook for income, business and the labor market, fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third straight monthly decline.

Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said the headline “deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening.” The Present Situation Index fell sharply, she said, while Expectations slipped further into negative territory. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. Labor-market views worsened but stayed in positive territory.

Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.

Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board, September 2026 release

The Board has long treated an Expectations reading below 80 as a recession warning. September’s 63.6 sits well under that line. The survey ran from September 1 through 23, a window that included a federal funds rate increase and ongoing fighting in the Middle East, and the cutoff for the preliminary results was September 23. The next print is due October 27 at 10 a.m. ET.

THE SEPTEMBER CONFIDENCE BREAKDOWN

Net views of current business conditions, the share calling them “good” minus the share calling them “bad,” dropped 3.4 percentage points to -1.9%. That swing came mostly from more people saying conditions are bad: 20.4%, up from 17.3%, against 18.5% who still said good, down from 18.8%.

The Survey Closed While Gasoline Was Still Climbing

Peterson said write-in answers on what is hitting the economy were mostly grim. References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas in particular “rose to new heights, reflecting September’s surge in fuel costs.” Comments about war and conflict eased but stayed elevated. Politics, trade and jobs showed up too, though less often.

That matches the pump. AAA put the national average of $4.46 a gallon for regular on September 29, up 37 cents from $4.08 a month earlier and $1.32 above the $3.14 average a year earlier. Diesel averaged $6.44 a gallon, just under the record $6.53 set on September 22.

PUMP PRICES ON SEPTEMBER 29

• Regular gasoline: $4.46 a gallon nationally, up 37 cents from a month earlier.
• Diesel: $6.44 a gallon, a few cents under the September 22 record of $6.53.
• Year-ago regular: $3.14 a gallon, which leaves a $1.32 gap to the latest average.
• Survey window: September 1 to 23, before the late-month dip in crude.

The lag is the trap. Households answered while fuel was still expensive, then the print arrived on a day when crude was giving back some of the spike as more oil moved out of the Gulf. Confidence is a photograph of that earlier shock. Buying plans are what retailers will feel into the holidays, and those plans were already shrinking when the questionnaires closed.

Average 12-month inflation expectations rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, with the median at 5.1%. The share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months jumped 5.2 points to 68.4%. People still largely expected stock prices to rise, though that optimism faded.

Jobs Look Plentiful by a Hair

The labor-market differential, the share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying they are hard to get, retreated 2.5 points to just +1.7%. That is the channel that tends to move with the unemployment rate, and it is the one employers should watch even if official layoff counts have not caught up.

HOW HOUSEHOLDS RATED THE JOB MARKET

• Jobs plentiful: 23.6%, down from 24.5%, the lowest share since February 2021.
• Jobs hard to get: 21.9%, up from 20.3%, the highest share since January 2021.
• More jobs in six months: 14.0% expect that, down from 14.8%.
• Fewer jobs in six months: 28.4% expect that, up from 26.1%, for a net outlook of -14.4%.

A separate Labor Department report the same morning showed the official market is cooling without cracking. August job openings fell by 256,000 to 7,079,000 from 7,335,000 in July. The quits rate, which officials use as a read on whether workers still feel safe jumping, held at 1.9%. Layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.6 million.

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, wrote that Americans feel jobs are more scarce and are pulling back on plans for homes, cars and big-ticket purchases, “emitting a warning sign for holiday spending even though layoffs data show employers aren’t yet cutting workers to match the gloom.” The gap between that gloom and the layoff tape is the live risk: if households act on the differential, hiring will not have to collapse for spending to slow.

Why Households Cut Plans for Cars and Homes

On a six-month moving average, plans to buy autos and homes both declined slightly. Among durable goods, furniture and smartphones stayed the top wants. Plans for refrigerators and TV sets fell the most, and other durables moderated. Expected spending on services pared back again, with the cuts concentrated in hotels for personal travel, movies, airfare and amusement parks.

WHERE SPENDING PLANS COOLED

• Autos and homes: Purchase plans declined slightly on a six-month moving average.
• Appliances: Refrigerator and TV plans fell the most among durables.
• Discretionary services: Hotels, movies, airfare and amusement parks all moderated.
• What still held: Restaurants, streaming, beauty, utilities and healthcare stayed the top five service categories.

Vacation plans did not collapse. Some 42.6% of consumers planned a vacation in the next six months, up 0.5 points from August, but the gain was domestic; foreign travel dipped. Households are not shutting the wallet so much as steering it toward cheap thrills and bills they cannot skip.

That mix is why a sour survey does not automatically mean a spending crash. In recent years people have talked poor and still gone out. The difference this time is the combination: business conditions net negative, the jobs differential down to 1.7%, and the cuts sitting in the categories that carry the fourth quarter for dealers, builders and big-box floors. Restaurants can keep the lights on while the auto lot goes quiet.

Family Finances Flipped Into the Red

Consumers’ net view of their family’s current financial situation turned negative in September, as the share who said their finances were “bad” overtook those who said “good” for only the second time since the Board added the question four years ago. Views of the family’s finances six months out were somewhat less upbeat as well.

The share who thought a U.S. recession over the next 12 months was “somewhat likely” rose, and the share who thought a recession was “not likely” fell. Those recession questions are not used to calculate the headline index, so they sit beside the 81.9 rather than inside it. Income hopes stayed positive but thinner: 17.9% expected their income to increase, down from 19.0%, while 15.4% expected a decline, up from 13.5%, leaving a net of +2.5% after a 3.0-point drop.

Net expectations for business conditions over the next six months fell 3.2 points to -9.5%. Only 15.9% expected business to improve, down from 17.0%, while 25.4% expected it to worsen, up from 23.3%. The present-versus-future split is the old pre-slowdown pattern: people still have jobs, and they do not like what they see coming.

Williams Says the Fed Can Wait

The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point in September to 3.75% to 4%, the first increase in three years, after energy costs fed back into inflation. John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, spoke in Buffalo on September 29 and pushed back on the idea of another move in October.

With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information. The accumulation of more data should provide greater clarity on the underlying trends in the economy and the associated risks to achieving our goals, and thereby the appropriate setting of monetary policy.

John C. Williams, President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, University at Buffalo, September 29, 2026

Williams said that if the economy evolves in line with his forecast, no need for urgency still leaves room for “one further upward adjustment” of the funds range late this year to bring inflation back to 2% on a faster clock. He also said monetary policy cannot move ships or reopen pipelines, but it can limit the chance that an energy shock seeps into broader prices.

Households are not waiting for that calendar. Nearly seven in ten already expect higher rates over the next year, and inflation expectations moved up to 6.1%. Long-term Treasury yields kept climbing even as oil slipped, with the 30-year yield touching 5.62%, a level last seen in 2002. The Fed wants time and incoming data. The survey says families have already marked up the cost of money and marked down the goods they planned to finance.

Inflation figures due September 30 were the next test of whether the fuel spike is still in the price data. The September employment report was still ahead. Either number can change the late-year hike Williams sketched. Neither will rewind the questionnaires that closed on September 23.

The Sour Mood Cut Across Parties and Paychecks

Confidence fell in September among Democrats, Republicans and Independents. On a six-month moving average it trended down across all age groups and nearly all income groups. Higher-income households stayed more upbeat in levels, but people in the $125,000 to $149,000 band reported the largest decline over those six months. By generation, Gen Z and then Millennials still sat at the top of that moving average; Generation X, Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation kept weakening.

The breadth is what takes the print out of the usual partisan-vibes argument. When every affiliation and almost every paycheck moves the same way, the common shock is the one in the write-ins: prices, and gas in particular. The 81.9 reading is also below the low recorded during the 2020 shutdowns, which is why the comparison to April 2014 carries weight. This is not a lockdown. It is a cost-of-living scare with a labor market that still looks all right in the official counts and already looks worse at the kitchen table.

Retailers heading into the holidays are the ones who have to live with that gap. So is a central bank that just started raising rates again and would like to wait. The Conference Board will take another reading on October 27. Until then the 81.9, the 1.7% jobs differential, and the softer plans for cars, homes and appliances are the household vote that arrived before the next policy meeting.