India’s Crude Bill Jumps 47% as Refiners Earn More

India’s crude oil import bill jumped 47% year-on-year to $15.4 billion in September on volumes up just 7%. Provisional Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell figures put arrivals at 21.7 million tonnes.

The same West Asia price spike lifted what refiners earned on barrels they sent back out, even as product export volumes fell 24.2%.

September’s Bill Versus the Barrels

PPAC’s monthly snapshot is a price story first. Crude receipts rose 7% to 21.7 million tonnes, yet the dollar bill surged 47% to $15.4 billion. The net oil and gas import bill, crude plus products plus gas minus product exports, widened 39.6% to $13.4 billion.

The Indian crude basket averaged $116.09 a barrel in September, up from $90.19 in August and $82.04 in July. That September print is the highest monthly average of the 2026-27 fiscal year so far, and it sits above April’s $114.48, which had been the previous peak after the US-Iran war began on 28 February.

SEPTEMBER OIL LEDGER, PPAC

LNG is the odd line in that table. Cargoes fell 8.5% to 2,957 million standard cubic metres from 3,233 a year earlier, and the gas bill still came in at $1.2 billion. India paid about as much for less gas, then paid a lot more for only a little more crude.

Refiners Shipped Less and Earned More

Product exports are where the price shock changed sign. Shipments dropped 24.2% to 4.7 million tonnes in September, while revenue rose about 20% to $4.8 billion. Fewer tonnes left Indian ports. Each tonne earned more dollars.

That is the export side of a war-premium market. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Middle East strikes, tanker attacks, a US blockade on Iranian barrels, hits on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and pressure at Bab el-Mandeb pushed prices through the third quarter, and Brent futures peaked at $109 a barrel on 15 September, with spot grades as high as $132 around the same time. Distillate and jet cracks almost tripled their year-ago levels in the US data, which is the same tightness Asian product markets were pricing.

Diesel is doing the heavy lifting on that rebate. Product exports were already the bandage on a swollen crude bill through the summer, and September kept the pattern: volume down, value up. New Delhi also cut the windfall levy on diesel and aviation turbine fuel from 1 October, after bringing that tax back in March when crude first jumped.

Customs books a larger dollar figure than PPAC’s oil-company series. The Commerce Ministry’s quick estimates put petroleum product shipments worth $6.22 billion in September, up 31.90% from $4.71 billion a year earlier. That is a different ledger from PPAC’s $4.8 billion, and the two should not be added or averaged.

74% More Gulf Crude in One Month

Ship-tracking tallies from Kpler show why the basket felt Gulf-heavy even as Russia stayed the single largest named supplier. India’s crude arrivals ran at 5.32 million barrels a day in September, in line with PPAC’s 21.7 million tonnes. Named West Asian grades jumped 74% from August to 2.10 million barrels a day, or 39.5% of the total, from 26% in August and 24.1% in July.

That share is still well below 59.1% in February, before Gulf flows broke. Add 646,000 barrels a day booked as unknown origin and the West Asia-linked pile reaches 2.75 million barrels a day, or 51.7% of September’s crude.

WHERE SEPTEMBER’S BARRELS CAME FROM

• West Asia named grades: 2.10 million barrels a day, 39.5% of 5.32 million, after a 74% month-on-month jump from 1.21 million.
• Iraq: 538,000 barrels a day, 25.6% of the named Gulf supply and 10.1% of India’s total crude.
• Russia: 1.88 million barrels a day, down from 2.09 million in August and from 2.83 million in July, a 35.3% share against 55.9% in July.
• US crude, LNG and LPG: 1.22 million tonnes combined, down 43% from 2.13 million in August, a five-month low.
• West Asia oil and gas: 13.56 million tonnes, up 67% from August as Gulf loadings recovered.

Gulf producers took share back as Russian barrels slipped, and US energy lost ground in the same month Washington was pushing New Delhi to buy more American oil and gas. Refiners followed the cargoes that could actually berth.

Why the Goods Deficit Still Narrowed

The oil bill did not set the trade print. Merchandise exports rose 23.04% to $44.40 billion in September from $36.08 billion a year earlier, the Commerce Ministry said on 15 October. Imports rose 8% to $74.61 billion from $69.08 billion, and the goods deficit narrowed to $30.21 billion from $33 billion. Against August’s $26.86 billion gap, the deficit widened.

Gold and silver did more of that year-on-year repair than crude. Gold imports fell 81.27% to $1.8 billion, and silver fell 49.11% to $665 million. Electronics exports jumped 70.44% to $5.31 billion from $3.11 billion, and chemicals rose 24.21% to $2.94 billion.

MERCHANDISE TRADE, SEPTEMBER

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal told reporters the second quarter had more punch than the first.

The trend of export growth has continued. Export growth in Q2 was higher than in Q1. Goods exports were much more robust in Q2.

Rajesh Agrawal, Commerce Secretary, 15 October briefing

The ministry’s own wrap is the official record of that print.

➤India’s total exports (Merchandise and Services combined) for September 2026* are estimated at US$ 80.75 Billion, registering a positive growth of 10.99 percent vis-à-vis September 2025.

➤Total imports (Merchandise and Services combined) for September 2026* are estimated at… pic.twitter.com/6KHORuARLW

— PIB India (@PIB_India) October 15, 2026

April-September still looks heavier. Goods exports were $259.89 billion and imports $437.53 billion, so the half-year merchandise deficit was $177.64 billion against $156.88 billion a year earlier. Oil can dominate a month’s argument and still lose a year-on-year comparison to a collapse in bullion.

Delhi Diesel at Rs 95.20 a Litre

Domestic demand did not roll over. PPAC consumption data compiled on 6 October put oil use at 19.259 million tonnes in September, up 3.4% year-on-year and the strongest September on that series. Diesel rose 5.6% to 7.164 million tonnes, gasoline 8.0% to 3.669 million tonnes. LPG fell 9.0% to 2.544 million tonnes, the line most exposed to Gulf cooking-gas cargoes and the Strait of Hormuz.

SEPTEMBER FUEL USE, PPAC

• All oil products: 19.259 million tonnes, up 3.4% year-on-year.
• Diesel: 7.164 million tonnes, up 5.6%.
• Gasoline: 3.669 million tonnes, up 8.0%.
• LPG: 2.544 million tonnes, down 9.0%, after a 14.93% drop across April-September.

Retail prices did not track the basket one-for-one. On 16 October, IOCL’s Delhi pump listed petrol at Rs 102.12 a litre and diesel at Rs 95.20. One fifth of petrol is ethanol under a 20.00% blend in the November 2025-August 2026 year, a slice priced inside India and not on Brent. Oil marketing companies and excise cuts have been absorbing part of the war premium, which is why the dollar bill can scream while the pump looks almost ordinary.

That split is the household version of the export irony. Refiners can sell diesel abroad against record cracks. Drivers still buy it at a managed Delhi price. The current account, not the nozzle, takes the $15.4 billion invoice.

The October Average Is Already $122.01

PPAC’s 16 October update put the Indian basket’s October average, so far that month, at $122.01 a barrel. The September mix was already sweeter than August: 77.81% Brent Dated and 22.19% Oman-Dubai, against 74.94:25.06 the month before. A basket that leans Brent feels a North Sea and freight shock faster than a sour-heavy slate.

INDIAN CRUDE BASKET, PPAC

1. April 2026: $114.48 a barrel after the first war spike.
2. May 2026: $106.23 as some Gulf flows ease.
3. June 2026: $83.22 after a 17 June Hormuz memorandum.
4. July 2026: $82.04, the fiscal-year low, with Brent futures at $72 on 1 July.
5. August 2026: $90.19 as strikes resume.
6. September 2026: $116.09, the highest monthly average of 2026-27 to date.
7. October 2026, to 16 October: $122.01 month-to-date average.

Brent on 1 July was $72 a barrel, the weakest since 26 February, two days before the war. Futures crossed $100 on 9 September and peaked at $109 on 15 September. India’s official basket in October is already above that September futures high, because physical sour-sweet mixes and freight are not the screen.

September’s 21.7 million tonnes were never the expensive part. The expensive part was paying $15.4 billion for them, then watching product export tonnes shrink 24.2% while the receipts still grew, and watching gold imports collapse hard enough to leave a $30.21 billion goods gap smaller than a year ago. October’s $122.01 average says that bargain, such as it was, has not cheapened.

Frequently Asked Questions

How Does PPAC Calculate the Net Oil and Gas Import Bill?

PPAC adds imports of crude oil, petroleum products and gas, then subtracts exports of petroleum products. September’s net was $13.4 billion, up 39.6%. That oil-company series is not the Commerce Ministry’s customs crude line, so the two prints should not be stacked as one invoice.

What Share of the Indian Crude Basket Was Brent Dated in September?

Sweet crude (Brent Dated) was 77.81% of the basket in September and sour crude (the Oman and Dubai average) was 22.19%. August was 74.94:25.06. The mix is reset each month from what Indian refineries actually lifted.

How Large Was India’s Combined Goods and Services Trade in September 2026?

Goods and services exports were estimated at $80.75 billion, up 10.99% from a year earlier, and imports at $94.05 billion, up 8.19%. The combined deficit was $13.30 billion, against $14.17 billion in September 2025. Services exports were estimated at $36.35 billion, slightly below $36.67 billion a year earlier.

What Were April-September Merchandise Totals for 2026-27?

Goods exports were $259.89 billion, up 18.51% from $219.30 billion, and goods imports were $437.53 billion against $376.17 billion. The half-year merchandise deficit was $177.64 billion, compared with $156.88 billion a year earlier. Non-petroleum exports in the same six months were $218.70 billion, up 15.56%.