Gold Falls Below Rs 1.5 Lakh as Fed Hike Bets and Oil Drag It Down

Gold prices in India fell below the Rs 1.5 lakh line in domestic futures trade on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, as a stronger US dollar, rising oil, and a 70% market bet on a Federal Reserve rate hike dragged bullion to its weakest level in nearly three months. MCX gold futures for August delivery opened 1.65% lower at Rs 1,49,926 per 10 grams, against the previous close of Rs 1,52,443, and remained under the Rs 1.5 lakh mark through early trade, while MCX silver for July delivery opened 1.89% lower at Rs 2,34,009 per kilogram.

MCX Gold Slips Below Rs 1.5 Lakh

The August MCX gold contract opened at Rs 1,49,926 per 10 grams, down Rs 2,517, or 1.65%, from its previous close of Rs 1,52,443. During early trade, the contract recovered some ground to trade at Rs 1,50,213, still 1.46% lower. The intraday bounce left the price within striking distance of the psychologically important Rs 1.5 lakh line, a level the contract has tested from below for the first time since the rally that lifted domestic prices to successive records earlier this year.

Silver followed gold lower. The July MCX silver contract opened at Rs 2,34,009 per kg, a fall of Rs 4,519, or 1.89%, from the previous close of Rs 2,38,528. The contract later traded at Rs 2,35,877, down 1.11% on the session. Retail 24K gold rates across the major Indian cities sat between Rs 1,48,860 and Rs 1,48,960 per 10 grams on Wednesday morning, with the 22K rate at Rs 1,36,450 to Rs 1,36,600 depending on the city, per the bullion price report carried on News18. The intraday city-wise spread was narrow, with most metros clustered at Rs 1,48,860 for 24K and Rs 1,36,450 for 22K.

An 11-Week Low for Spot Gold

Spot gold fell 1.8% to $4,187.59 an ounce in early trade, touching its lowest level since March 23. US gold futures for August delivery declined 1.7% to $4,213.40 an ounce. The slide extended a pullback that has erased most of the gains gold made in the run-up to its spring rally.

Other precious metals joined the move. Spot silver fell 1.5% to $64.43 an ounce, platinum declined 2.8% to $1,678.10, and palladium was down 0.8% at $1,212.31. The basket of precious metals traded lower across the board, a pattern that has held for three sessions as the US dollar firmed and US Treasury yields climbed. The 10-year US Treasury yield pushed closer to 4.5% on Wednesday morning, the kind of move that raises the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no coupon. The dollar index sat at a multi-week high, and crude oil futures were up about 1% on the day.

Gold’s drop to an 11-week low marks a sharp reversal from the levels above $4,500 the metal was trading at in late May. The prior session on Monday saw the metal already struggling to hold $4,500 as oil and Treasury yields pulled it lower, even as Middle East tensions flared. The pattern repeated on Wednesday, only more sharply, with spot gold breaking decisively under the $4,200 mark for the first time since the spring.

The Dollar, Yields, and the Fed’s December Math

The pressure on bullion came from three macro forces feeding into each other. A stronger US dollar makes gold more expensive for buyers holding other currencies, trimming demand. Rising US Treasury yields lift the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. And the rate path implied by the bond market is now leaning toward higher policy rates, not lower. According to the CME FedWatch probability tracker, traders are pricing in more than a 70% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by December. Last week’s blockbuster US jobs report, which sent the metal to a two-month low on Monday, was the trigger for the shift in expectations.

“The driver really is the shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, the rise in yields, and the rise in the dollar. I think all of those things are weighing on gold,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, according to Reuters. Investors are now waiting for two key US inflation prints, the May Consumer Price Index due Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday, for the next read on the Fed’s path. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading would reinforce the rate-hike bet and pressure gold further; a softer print would revive the safe-haven and rate-cut trades.

• CME FedWatch: more than 70% probability of a Fed rate hike by December
• Spot gold: 1.8% lower at $4,187.59/oz, lowest since March 23
• US gold August futures: 1.7% lower at $4,213.40/oz
• 10-year US Treasury yield: pushing toward 4.5%

Oil and the Iran Standoff

Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday, raising concerns about inflation and reinforcing expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer. Higher crude feeds into gasoline and shipping costs, lifts inflation expectations, and gives the bond market another reason to demand a higher yield. The chain runs from oil to yields to the dollar to gold, and on Wednesday each link pulled in the same bearish direction for bullion.

The geopolitical trigger sat in the Strait of Hormuz. The US launched strikes against Iran on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said Tehran had shot down a US Apache helicopter patrolling the waterway, the most serious escalation in the months-long standoff between the two countries. According to a BBC report on the Hormuz helicopter downing and US strikes, the two Apache crew members were rescued by an American sea drone, and US officials said Iran had used a drone to launch the attack, though it was not clear the strike was deliberate. Iran’s IRGC said it had launched retaliatory strikes on 21 targets at US bases in Bahrain and Jordan, an exchange that put any near-term peace deal in question and lifted crude higher.

Gold’s role as a conflict hedge has, for now, been overridden by the rate math. The metal that typically rallies on geopolitical shocks fell alongside equities on Wednesday because the same oil shock that should support gold is also the one keeping the Fed on a hiking path.

BoJ and ECB Add a Second Squeeze

The pressure on bullion is not confined to the US. Kotak Securities, in a note on Wednesday, pointed to hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan, with reports indicating a potential 25-basis-point rate hike as soon as next week, and expectations of a European Central Bank rate increase this week. A tighter BoJ pulls the yen higher, complicates the carry trades that have funded speculative commodity bets, and adds another layer of dollar strength on the crosses.

Each of these central bank moves matters because it tightens global financial conditions in a way that weighs on non-yielding assets. The BoJ signal, the ECB move, and the Fed’s December pricing together form a backdrop of higher rates across three of the world’s major currency blocs. Gold has rarely held its bid against that combination for long, and the price action on Wednesday reflected that history. Central bank buying, the long-running structural support under gold, has so far been unable to offset the rate headwind.

The Levels Traders Are Watching

Spot gold at $4,187.59 sat within a few dollars of the $4,100 line, a level traders have flagged as the next decisive test. A clean break below it would, in one strategist’s view, change the technical picture for the metal.

The macro events that could move the needle in the next 48 hours are the US inflation prints. A hotter-than-expected CPI on Wednesday would lift the rate-hike probability, push yields and the dollar higher, and pressure gold further. A cooler print would do the opposite. The PPI on Thursday is the second of the two data points traders are watching.

Indian traders have their own levels to track. Jigar Trivedi, senior research analyst at IndusInd Securities, said the outlook for MCX gold remains negative and a “sell on bounce” approach is appropriate. He placed support at Rs 1,49,000 per 10 grams and resistance at Rs 1,51,000. For MCX silver, he sees support at Rs 2,30,000 per kg and resistance at Rs 2,40,000, with a “sell on rise” view intact. The contract spent early trade at Rs 2,35,877, sitting between the two levels.

Spivak’s longer view is darker still. He sees a path below $3,500 an ounce by year-end if $4,100 gives way. The slide below Rs 1.5 lakh on MCX is the surface read; the consequential story is the chain of oil, the dollar, and the Fed’s December math now pulling bullion toward levels it has not tested in months, with the Monday session’s slide covered in this site’s report on oil and yields pulling the metal lower and the prior pricing in this earlier note on rate-hike bets.

If we can break the $4,100 level, I think the path of resistance fundamentally changes for gold, and we might be starting to look at $3,500 as the next level into the end of the year.

Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, told Reuters in the bullion report carried by News18.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the gold price in India today, June 10, 2026?

MCX gold futures for August delivery opened at Rs 1,49,926 per 10 grams on June 10, down 1.65% from the previous close of Rs 1,52,443. Retail 24K rates across major Indian cities sat between Rs 1,48,860 and Rs 1,48,960 per 10 grams on Wednesday morning.

What level should traders watch next?

Spivak of Tastylive flagged $4,100 an ounce in spot gold as the next decisive level. A break below it, he said, would change the path of resistance and put $3,500 on the table by year-end. On MCX, IndusInd Securities placed support at Rs 1,49,000 per 10 grams and resistance at Rs 1,51,000, with a “sell on bounce” approach.

Is the Federal Reserve really going to raise rates in 2026?

The CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of a Fed rate hike by December at more than 70%, based on pricing in 30-day fed funds futures. The shift followed last week’s strong US jobs report, and the May CPI on June 10 and the PPI on June 11 are the next two tests of that pricing.

How are silver, platinum, and palladium performing?

Spot silver fell 1.5% to $64.43 an ounce, platinum declined 2.8% to $1,678.10, and palladium was down 0.8% at $1,212.31. All four precious metals, including gold, traded lower on June 10 as the dollar firmed and rate-hike expectations climbed. The moves mirrored gold’s slide, with platinum the weakest of the four.

Why is the Bank of Japan rate decision relevant for gold?

Kotak Securities flagged hawkish signals from the BoJ, with reports indicating a potential 25-basis-point rate hike as soon as next week. A tighter BoJ pulls the yen higher, complicates the carry trades that fund speculative commodity bets, and adds another layer of dollar strength on the crosses, all of which weigh on non-yielding gold.

Disclaimer: Gold, silver, and other commodity markets carry significant risk and prices can move sharply on macroeconomic and geopolitical news. This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Readers should consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions, and all prices and figures are accurate as of publication on June 10, 2026.