Brent Falls Below $79 as Iran Secures Oil Export Waivers in Geneva

Oil prices fell on Monday after US-Iran talks concluded in Geneva with Tehran saying it had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, easing supply-shortage worries in global markets. The first round of meetings between high-ranking American and Iranian officials wrapped up at the Bürgenstock resort on Lake Lucerne, mediator statements said, two days after a memorandum of understanding extended a tenuous April ceasefire for at least 60 more days.

The diplomatic progress did more than settle Monday’s tape. Iran, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait are each adding barrels or offering more crude at once, a structural shift that goes beyond the immediate price reversal. Asian equity markets have already moved. ING analysts, however, warned ahead of the talks’ conclusion that there are very real risks of a flare-up in hostilities during the 60-day window underpinning the entire price move.

Brent Closes Below $79 After Asia’s Wild Session

Monday’s session opened with a spike, as Brent climbed to $82.30 a barrel on threats from US President Donald Trump to restart the war on Iran, alongside Tehran’s renewed announcement that it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz. The reversal came once Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi delivered his readout from the Swiss venue. By the time the dust settled, Brent had closed below $79 a barrel.

Trump’s social-media threat to drop bombs again on Iran, and Iran’s separate declaration that it had closed the strategic waterway citing alleged US and Israeli violations of the interim peace deal, had driven the early jump. The number of ships passing Hormuz had fallen sharply on Sunday, shipping data showed. Once the talks’ conclusion was confirmed, traders reversed course. Monday’s $78.89 close and the Araqchi readout showed how quickly the diplomatic news reset the calculus.

The reversal adds to a softer week for crude. Prices had already fallen by more than 8% over the prior week on hopes of supply returning from cargoes stranded in the Gulf and from the potential lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil.

• $78.89 Brent close on Monday, down $1.68 (2.09%)
• $82.30 Brent’s opening spike before the diplomatic reversal
• $76 WTI close, down 60 cents ahead of contract expiry
• $75.16 August WTI contract, down 69 cents
• more than 8% Brent’s decline over the prior week

What Tehran Brought Home

Araqchi framed the package as three separate wins for Iran, building on the framework deal signed last week. He told reporters his country had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the release of some frozen assets, and the launch of a reconstruction and development plan that the United States has agreed to back. The deal lets Iran move sanctioned crude back to market through conventional channels for the first time since the war began on February 28. For Tehran, the waivers are the centerpiece; they free up revenue that has been blocked since the US tightened enforcement in March.

Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based SS WealthStreet, quantified the export side. The deal could let nearly 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude return to international markets, she said, a level that would offset much of the wartime supply shock. Iranian economic minister Seyed Ali Madanizadeh was more cautious, telling the Guardian the waiver would not produce an economic bonanza and short-term output gains would likely be modest. His caveat is worth weighing against the bullishness in the market’s reaction.

Four Supply Channels Open at Once

Iran’s reopening is the most consequential single channel, and it has already moved 25 million barrels through the virtual blockade since Monday, according to the head of the National Iranian Oil Company. The UAE, Kuwait and Iraq have separately added barrels or offered more crude to customers in the past week, per a wire tally. Each channel is incremental on its own, in combination they convert what had been a wartime disruption into a more durable supply addition.

Iraq’s plan is the most explicit. Deputy Oil Minister Nasir Aziz said Sunday that production will be restored toward pre-crisis levels of 4.2 to 4.3 million barrels per day, with southern exports returning to roughly 3.5 million barrels per day once field readiness is confirmed. The Iraqi ministry is also working with international contractors to overcome technical and logistical challenges that accumulated during the wartime cuts. The plan is to gradually lift output over a suitable period, reaching the planned levels despite the damage.

A cargo backlog is also starting to clear. More than 500 vessels were estimated to be waiting to exit the Gulf through the strait at the peak of the disruption, according to industry data cited by Al Jazeera. US Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that tankers carrying more than 12 million barrels had crossed the strait overnight, with Iran not firing on any commercial ships.

Each channel pulls in the same direction at once, and traders now have to price in the prospect that wartime supply losses unwind faster than expected. The pressure is on producers to respond before the new ceiling takes hold.

• Iran: 25 million barrels already moved through the virtual blockade since Monday (Hamid Bovard, head of the National Iranian Oil Company)
• Iran potential: up to 1.5 million barrels per day returning to global markets (Sugandha Sachdeva, SS WealthStreet)
• Iraq: targeting 4.2 to 4.3 million barrels per day production restoration, with southern exports around 3.5 million (Nasir Aziz, deputy oil minister)
• UAE, Kuwait, Iraq collectively: offered more oil to customers in the past week (Reuters)
• Gulf cargoes: more than 500 vessels queued at Hormuz at the peak of the disruption (Al Jazeera, citing industry data)

The 60-Day Ceasefire Holds the Floor

All four supply channels, and the price decline that follows them, rest on a fragile foundation. The Geneva talks extend the April ceasefire between the United States and Iran for at least 60 more days, with formal implementation talks to follow. ING analysts warned before the conclusion was announced that the wider trajectory toward a permanent deal remains difficult. Their warning pointed to a specific risk that has already begun to materialise.

Recent developments show that moving towards a more permanent deal will be challenging, with very real risks of a flare-up in hostilities during the 60-day ceasefire.

ING analysts circulated the warning in a note released before the talks’ conclusion was announced in Switzerland. The fragility is not abstract; Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed at least 20 people on Saturday, one day after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect, Lebanon’s state news agency NNA reported. Hezbollah had earlier killed four Israeli soldiers, drawing Israeli retaliation in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa valley that killed at least 47 people, according to The Guardian.

Markets have begun pricing in the geopolitical risk. BIMCO, the world’s largest shipowner association, told its members on Monday that the strait remains volatile and very risky for ships to commence transits at this point. The group urged shipowners to continue thorough risk assessments and to appeal to all parties to put the safety of seafarers first. Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer, said in a statement that the US and Iran had yet to provide information about key aspects such as timings and safe routes.

Asian Equities Read Cheaper Crude

Cheaper crude has begun to flow through Asian stock markets. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi both hit all-time highs after the framework deal was signed, with the Nikkei gaining more than 2 percent and the Kospi up 1.7 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex rose as much as 1.3 percent, while US stock futures tied to the S&P 500 climbed about 0.8 percent.

Tiago Lacerda, a market analyst at Axi, told CNBC that oil is likely to trade between $75 and $82 a barrel in the near term, roughly 36% below its wartime peak. The IEA had estimated the wartime disruption produced a 14-million-barrel daily shortfall; the agency now expects a structural surplus in coming years, per the IEA’s 2027 surplus forecast of 5 million bpd.

Implementation Hurdles on Both Sides

The Geneva framework leaves several pieces still on the table. Iran has announced plans to introduce a system of maritime fees in the Strait of Hormuz after the 60-day window, according to a Guardian report on Tehran’s plan for Hormuz transit fees. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, publicly rejected the idea. He argued that prior management of the waterway had worked fine, and that accepting a novel arrangement would set a costly precedent.

Technical implementation talks are continuing. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Switzerland along with presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner after Vice President JD Vance’s planned trip was postponed. Vance told reporters Thursday that tankers with more than 12 million barrels had crossed the strait overnight and that Iran was honouring its end of the commitment.

The package also opens a reconstruction fund the US has agreed to back, a $350 billion facility Iran hopes will attract private Gulf capital. Trump’s own framing on social media was sharper, claiming the United States did not negotiate from weakness; his own officials are now the ones warning that the 60-day window is the deal’s most exposed flank.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Commodity prices are highly volatile and may be affected by geopolitical developments, OPEC decisions, and macroeconomic factors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers should consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Figures are accurate as of publication on June 22, 2026.