Wales, Scotland Hand Starmer Lesson in Minority Rule

Two new minority governments in Wales and Scotland are quietly showing Westminster how to run a country without a majority. As Prime Minister Keir Starmer battles for survival in Downing Street, First Ministers Rhun ap Iorwerth and John Swinney are building power through cooperation, not control. Their first moves could rewrite the future of British politics.

Plaid Cymru Makes History in Cardiff

Rhun ap Iorwerth was elected First Minister of Wales on May 12, becoming the first politician outside Welsh Labour to hold the office in the 27-year history of devolution. His party, Plaid Cymru, won 43 of the 96 seats in the newly expanded Senedd, finishing six short of a majority but well clear of every rival.

The vote saw 44 members back him, including support from the two Welsh Greens. Labour’s nine MSs and the sole Liberal Democrat abstained. Reform UK nominated their leader Dan Thomas, who picked up 34 votes, while the Conservatives got 7.

“It is the greatest privilege of my life to be elected first minister in a nation that means so much to me,” ap Iorwerth told the chamber.

He has ruled out a full coalition. Instead, he plans a “cooperative approach” with smaller progressive parties on a bill-by-bill basis. His new cabinet, named on May 13, includes Sioned Williams as Deputy First Minister and former party leader Adam Price returning as Cabinet Minister for Enterprise, Connectivity and Energy.

Swinney Holds On as SNP Returns to Power

In Edinburgh, John Swinney’s SNP won 58 seats in the 129-seat Scottish Parliament, seven short of the 65 needed for a majority. Reform UK and Scottish Labour finished tied on 17 seats each.

Swinney has invited every opposition leader, except Reform UK, into talks about possible cooperation. He has said openly that he wants to “fully Farage-proof” Holyrood.

The SNP and the Scottish Greens together hold 73 seats. That is the largest pro-independence bloc since devolution began in 1999. A formal partnership remains uncertain, with tension over North Sea oil and gas slowing talks between the two parties.

Why Devolution Was Built for This Moment

Wales and Scotland use proportional representation. Leaders walk into every election expecting to negotiate with smaller parties.

Westminster’s first-past-the-post system works very differently. A 35% vote share can deliver a thumping majority, as Keir Starmer found in 2024.

The legal framework also protects minority rule. The Scotland Act 1998 and the Government of Wales Act 2006 set fixed terms. An early election can only happen if a successor is not chosen within 28 days. That has never occurred in either parliament.

This rule cuts both ways. It stops the opposition from toppling a minority government easily. But it also prevents a first minister from threatening early dissolution to keep allies in line.

When first ministers have fallen in the past, like Humza Yousaf in 2024 or Alun Michael back in 2000, their parties produced new leaders without forcing voters back to the polls. The system was designed to absorb shocks, not collapse under them.

Starmer Faces a Very Different Reality

While the devolved nations settle into power sharing mode, Keir Starmer is fighting to keep his own job in Downing Street. Labour lost 1,496 councillors and control of 38 councils in the May 7 elections. Reform UK swept up more than 1,454 seats and broke into northern England, the Midlands and London for the first time.

Over 70 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to resign or set a clear timetable to leave. Four ministers, including Home Office minister Jess Phillips, walked out of his cabinet in a single day.

Names like Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham are being floated as potential replacements. A leadership challenge needs the backing of 81 Labour MPs to trigger a contest, and so far no single name has secured that level of support.

The Prime Minister has refused to step aside. He has called his programme a “10-year project of renewal” and warned that quitting would “plunge the country into chaos.”

The Cooperation Playbook for the Future

Minority government has its own rhythm. It rewards patience, dialogue and small wins. The playbook smart leaders use looks something like this:

• Talk to opposition parties on every major bill
• Make tactical concessions on budgets where needed
• Accept the odd parliamentary defeat without panic
• Use executive powers that do not require a parliamentary vote
• Divide opposition parties so they cannot unite against you

A minority government can still get plenty done. Ministers control the civil service, public spending and policy direction every single day. Changing the law is hard, but running the state is not.

Alex Salmond proved the model could work between 2007 and 2011, leading the SNP with just 47 seats out of 129. He used divide and rule tactics that left the opposition unable to coordinate.

The arrival of Reform UK as a pariah party in both Cardiff and Edinburgh actually strengthens the hand of the new first ministers. The more isolated Reform becomes, the less likely it is that the rest of the opposition will unite against the government on any major vote.

The political map of Britain is shifting faster than Westminster wants to admit. Wales and Scotland are not just holding elections, they are running quiet experiments in cooperative power that the rest of the country may soon need to study. Whether Keir Starmer survives the summer or not, the message from Cardiff and Edinburgh is the same: a majority is not a free pass, and a minority is not a death sentence. What do you think about the rise of minority rule across the UK? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and tell us if you believe Westminster is ready to learn the lesson.