Plaid and SNP Crush Labour in Historic UK Election Shock

Labour has officially admitted defeat in both Wales and Scotland after a brutal night at the ballot box, ending more than a century of dominance in Welsh politics. Plaid Cymru is set to govern in Cardiff, the SNP has stretched its 19-year run at Holyrood, and First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her own seat. The result is being called the worst blow to Labour in living memory.

Labour’s Welsh Stronghold Crumbles After 104 Years

For the first time since 1922, Labour is no longer the biggest party in Wales. The collapse was sudden, savage, and complete.

The party slumped to roughly nine seats in the newly expanded 96 seat Senedd, down from 30 last term. Sir Keir Starmer’s team conceded by Friday afternoon on May 8, hours before the final ballots were even counted.

Eluned Morgan became the first sitting head of government in UK history to lose her seat while still in post. She was beaten in Ceredigion Penfro, a result that stunned even her own campaign team in Cardiff.

Professor Richard Wyn Jones of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre called the night “existential” for Welsh Labour. Many inside the party agree this is not a wobble. It is a reckoning.

“We made the argument for change, but ultimately it is an argument we lost.” Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour leader

Plaid Cymru Storms Cardiff With Rhun ap Iorwerth

Plaid Cymru emerged as the clear winner in Wales with 43 seats, just six short of an outright majority. Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth, who held Bangor Conwy Môn, is now expected to be nominated as Wales’s next First Minister.

In his victory speech, ap Iorwerth told supporters that voters had “demanded a change of leadership.” His tone was calm, almost statesmanlike, but the message was sharp.

This time, Plaid did not lead with the independence flag. The party softened its pitch and ran on cost of living promises instead.

• Reform of council tax bands
• Lower business rates for Welsh high streets
• Expanded childcare for working families
• Stronger lobbying for more devolved powers from Westminster

Analysts say Plaid borrowed a page from the SNP’s 2007 playbook, proving it can govern first and arguing for a referendum later. Coalition talks with smaller parties are expected to begin within days.

SNP Returns to Power in Scotland but Falls Short of Majority

North of the border, John Swinney declared an “emphatic victory” for the Scottish National Party. The party won 58 seats at Holyrood, down from 64 in 2021, and seven short of the 65 needed for an outright majority.

It is still a stunning comeback. Just two years ago, after the bruising 2024 general election, many had written the SNP off entirely.

Swinney now faces the tricky task of governing as a minority. Professor James Mitchell of Edinburgh University said the First Minister will need to build majorities “vote by vote” with a fragmented opposition. Public finances, he warned, will make every deal painful.

Green co-leader Lorna Slater pulled off one of the night’s biggest shocks by beating SNP minister Angus Robertson in Edinburgh Central. Holly Bruce took Glasgow Southside, the seat once held by Nicola Sturgeon.

Reform UK Splits the Anti SNP and Anti Labour Vote

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was the unexpected force on both sides of the border. In Wales, Reform finished a strong second with 34 seats, an extraordinary leap for a party that held none last term.

In Scotland, Reform tied with Labour on 17 seats, all won through the regional list system. Farage called it a “historic shift in British politics.”

One senior Labour figure summed it up bluntly. “SNP support is down across the country, but the addition of Reform has splintered the anti SNP vote. Anas was clear that if you wanted the SNP out, you had to coalesce around one party. That hasn’t happened.”

The Conservatives, meanwhile, were nearly wiped from the map in Wales for the second election running.

What the Result Means for Keir Starmer

The Prime Minister now faces awkward questions about his grip on the union. Labour’s strongholds in the central belt of Scotland and the Welsh valleys both buckled on the same night.

Sarwar repeated his February call for Starmer to resign as UK Prime Minister, although Starmer has signalled he will not step down. Allies in Westminster insist the local picture is not the same as a general election.

Still, the numbers are hard to spin.

1. Labour lost its longest winning streak in any democracy.
2. A sitting First Minister was rejected by her own voters.
3. Reform broke into two devolved parliaments at once.
4. Pro independence parties now dominate Edinburgh and Cardiff.

For Downing Street, this is no longer a warning shot. It is a fire alarm.

Friday closed with quiet shock in Cardiff Bay and a roar of celebration in Edinburgh. Voters in two proud nations told Westminster, in plain language, that the old certainties are finished. Labour’s century long bond with Wales has been broken, and the SNP has reminded Britain that Scottish politics is still very much its own story. Whatever happens next, May 7, 2026 will be remembered as the night the map of British politics was redrawn. What do you think about Labour’s collapse and the rise of Plaid Cymru and Reform UK? Share your views in the comments and join the conversation online using #SeneddElection2026 and #ScotlandDecides.