Gold and Silver Trim Gains as the Fed’s Hawkish Hold Caps Metals

Gold and silver gave back ground after the New York close on Monday. Traders unwound part of last week’s jobs-led rebound as the Federal Reserve’s June hold kept a year-end rate hike in play. Spot gold traded near $4,161.90 an ounce, down 0.29%, while spot silver sat at $61.90, down 0.59% on the session. Gold futures still finished the day at their highest level since June 22, with front-month gold up 1.0% at $4,155.10 a troy ounce and silver up 2.1% at $61.92, its fourth straight higher close.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and a fresh round of Strait of Hormuz headlines are the next policy and risk tests for both metals. Per Kitco News, traders are still pricing a Fed hike before year-end, the same path that has capped the rebound since the June meeting.

Spot Metals Give Back, Even as Futures Close Firmer

Gold’s intraday weakness and the firmer futures settle tell two different stories. The intraday move is the after-hours unwind, positions taken into the long U.S. weekend and Friday’s softer jobs data getting trimmed as New York returned. The futures close is the paper market holding the line at the highest settlement since June 22, a level that has held as resistance through the back half of the month.

By the time New York reopened, the move was already inside the day’s range. The post-close drift simply extended the fade that started in late trade, when the dollar firmed and the 10-year yield drifted back toward the 4.5% area. Spot gold’s late pullback to $4,161.90 was the visible end of that sequence.

The session’s other signal was silver. The metal outperformed gold on the futures settle, up 2.1% to $61.92 a troy ounce, and closed higher for a fourth straight session. Spot silver’s after-hours pullback to $61.90 kept the gap tight and left the relative-strength story intact, even as the headline tape moved red.

Per StoneX, the intraday-versus-futures split is the day’s main tension. The futures settle is the headline; the spot fade is the trade.

• Spot gold: $4,161.90/oz, down 0.29% on the session
• Spot silver: $61.900/oz, down 0.59% on the session
• Front-month gold futures: $4,155.10/oz, up 1.0%, highest settle since June 22
• Front-month silver futures: $61.92/oz, up 2.1%, fourth straight higher close

Friendless ETFs and Stuck CTA Shorts

Gold ETFs have not joined the bounce. Rhona O’Connell, market analyst at StoneX, said the flows are still “friendless” and pointed to that absence as the reason the rebound reads as thinner than the futures settle suggests. ETF demand tends to mark the high-conviction part of a precious-metals move, and without it, the price action is mostly positioning and paper.

“Gold ETFs are still friendless, keeping the rebound less convincing than the futures settlement alone suggests.”

Rhona O’Connell is a market analyst at StoneX, where she covers precious metals.

The other side of the same problem is in the futures market. Commodity analysts at TD Securities wrote that bearish precious-metals positions have been “hard to shake,” noting that CTAs did not move off net-short positioning even after the bounce into the long weekend, weaker-than-expected jobs data and softer Fed hike pricing. Their read is that the market is still pricing a hike before year-end, and that pricing continues to weigh on the complex.

Two analyst notes from different desks in the same week pointed at the same gap. The trade has lifted off the lows. The underlying demand has not turned up. The chart is the next test.

The Fed Anchor: A Hold That Tilts Hawkish

The June 16-17 meeting is the policy anchor under both metals. The FOMC voted to hold the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, a fourth consecutive hold, with Kevin Warsh presiding over his first meeting as chair. The post-meeting statement was brief by recent standards and removed language that had been read as a nod toward future cuts. Instead, it said “inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy.”

The Summary of Economic Projections hardened the read. The median fed funds rate estimate for the end of 2026 moved up to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with eight seeing no change, one seeing a cut, and nine seeing at least one hike. After the decision, traders moved to price a hike as early as October, per the CME Group’s FedWatch gauge. That is the path metals have been unable to break. Per the Fed’s June 17 rate decision, the committee also raised its 2026 inflation outlook to 3.6% on headline and 3.3% on core.

Hormuz Headlines Add Risk, Not Conviction

The Strait of Hormuz remains a live risk premium for crude and an indirect input for gold, but not a clean bullish one. Iran’s joint military command warned on Thursday that all oil tankers must use approved routes through the waterway or face a “forceful response,” and it also warned that U.S. interference “will be met with a rapid and decisive reaction.” The statement, reported by Iranian state television, came a day after U.S. and Iranian diplomats met with mediators in Qatar. Per the Iran warning to oil tankers, the Iranian statement and the U.S. response have done little to settle the shipping terms.

Crude has not behaved like a war premium. WTI settled down 0.2% at $68.55 a barrel and Brent settled down 0.2% at $71.99 a barrel, as resumed flows through the strait, OPEC+ supply increases and Saudi price cuts offset the geopolitical tension. Insurance costs and unresolved U.S.-Iran terms have kept an all-clear signal out of reach, but the spot oil tape sits closer to pre-conflict levels. An earlier post-Iran-deal gold rebound had faded once the Fed’s hawkish tilt took over the tape.

Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted at least 258 transits last week, up from 138 the week before, and its editor in chief, Richard Meade, said “routes are being chosen on an hour-by-hour basis.” For gold, that is a soundbite without a follow-through. The risk is real; the bid has not followed.

Macro Backdrop: Dollar, Yields and the ISM

The U.S. macro tape was not weak enough to break the dollar-rate headwind. The ISM services PMI registered 54.0 for June, with business activity at 55.4, new orders at 55.1 and employment at 51.2, an expansionary print that gave the Fed little reason to lean dovish. The U.S. dollar index was near unchanged to slightly firmer, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was near the 4.5% area, with the Treasury’s July 6 constant-maturity 10-year rate at 4.48%.

Yields at that level, combined with a still-elevated inflation print, are the conditions under which gold struggles to clear resistance and silver struggles to extend its fourth straight higher close. Until either the data weakens or the Fed reopens the easing conversation, the $4,000 support and the $4,200 resistance define the range both metals are working against.

Technical Levels to Watch

For gold, the chart frames are the next test. Spot gold bulls’ next upside objective is a push back above the $4,260 to $4,400 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500 and then $5,000. Bears’ next near-term downside objective is a break below $3,900, with deeper downside targets at $3,800 and then $3,950. First resistance is seen at $4,200 and then at $4,260; first support at $4,091 and then at $4,000. The late-June test of the $4,000 floor on a 13-month dollar high reset the range gold has been working in since.

For silver, the levels run wider. Spot silver bulls’ next upside objective is a drive back above the $64.00 to $72.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $90.00. The bears’ next downside objective is a break below $55.00, with deeper downside targets at $45.00 and then $60.75. First resistance is at $62.43 and then at $63.32; next support at $60.75 and then at $57.12.

Both metals need a catalyst to break out of those bands. The June 22 print near $4,200, when gold held modest gains as oil’s slide eased inflation fears, is the most recent reference for the resistance line. Per the June 22 reading on gold’s $4,200 cap, a near-90% priced-in hike by year-end was the level that capped the rebound. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are the next scheduled test of that pricing.

Frequently Asked Questions

When are the next FOMC minutes released?

The FOMC minutes from the June 16-17 meeting are due Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET. They are the next scheduled policy test for the precious-metals complex, after Friday’s jobs data and Monday’s two-sided trade.

What did the June FOMC actually decide?

The FOMC voted unanimously to hold the target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, with Kevin Warsh presiding as chair. The FOMC’s June 17 meeting page links to the post-meeting statement, which removed prior easing language and noted that inflation “remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks.” The median 2026 fed funds rate projection moved to 3.8% from 3.4% in March.

Why are gold ETFs called “friendless”?

StoneX market analyst Rhona O’Connell used the term in a Monday note to describe the absence of ETF demand in the recent rebound, which she said makes the move less convincing than the futures settle alone suggests. ETF flows typically mark the high-conviction part of a precious-metals rally, and their absence shows the current bounce is being driven by positioning rather than end-investor demand.

What is the Strait of Hormuz risk to gold?

Iran’s military command has issued a “forceful response” warning over tanker routes. Per Lloyd’s List Intelligence, shipping rebounded to 258 transits last week, up from 138 the week before, but WTI and Brent both settled down 0.2% as the spot oil tape priced in resumed flows. For gold, the risk premium is on the page but the bid has not followed.

What are the key technical levels for gold right now?

Per the Kitco report, gold’s first resistance is $4,200, then $4,260, with a $4,260-$4,400 zone above that. First support is $4,091, then $4,000, with a break below $3,900 opening the door to $3,800 and $3,950. A sustained push through the resistance zone targets $4,500 and then $5,000.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell commodities, securities or other financial instruments. Precious-metals prices and the related macro inputs (Fed policy, dollar, yields, oil) move quickly, and figures cited here are accurate as of publication. Readers should consult a qualified financial professional before acting on any view described above.