Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney just dropped a political bomb that has sent shockwaves from Edinburgh to Westminster: a SNP majority in the May 2026 Holyrood election will be treated as a cast-iron mandate to demand a second independence referendum.
In a blistering Sky News interview, Swinney not only tied the SNP’s electoral fate directly to indyref2, he openly questioned whether Keir Starmer will even survive in Downing Street long enough to say no.
What Swinney Actually Said
Appearing on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, the First Minister was unflinching.
“If people in Scotland want Scotland to become independent, the SNP has got to do really well in this forthcoming election,” he said.
He then delivered the killer line:
“It’s got to achieve a majority in the Scottish Parliament because when that happened before in 2011, it led to a referendum in 2014 and the Scots were able to determine their own constitution.”
When pressed on what happens if Starmer refuses, Swinney issued a double-barreled response.
First, he reminded viewers the UK is “allegedly a partnership of equals” and Scotland retains the democratic right to choose its future.
Second, he dropped this ice-cold prediction:
“If I win a majority in the Scottish Parliament elections in May of this year, I don’t think Keir Starmer will be the prime minister.”
That line alone has dominated Scottish political chatter all weekend.
Why This Moment Feels Different
The timing is electric.
Scotland is riding a wave of national euphoria after the men’s football team qualified for the 2026 World Cup with a thumping 4-2 playoff win over Denmark. Swinney has already declared a national bank holiday if they reach the knockout stages.
Saltire flags are everywhere. National confidence is sky-high.
Against that backdrop, Swinney’s words land like petrol on a barbecue.
This is not the cautious, deprioritised independence strategy of the last two years. This is the SNP roaring back to its core mission while the iron is scorching hot.
The Numbers Game
The SNP currently holds 60 of Holyrood’s 129 seats after defections and by-election losses since 2021.
To secure an outright majority, they need a net gain of at least five seats in May.
Recent polls paint a mixed picture:
- A Norstat survey for the Sunday Times (January 2026) put SNP on 39% for constituency vote and 31% regional – enough for a small majority.
- A rival Find Out Now poll showed Labour leading by three points.
- Yet a Redfield & Wilton study had the SNP eight points clear.
Translation: everything is still to play for, but the trend is moving Swinney’s way.
Westminster’s Response So Far
Downing Street has stuck to its scripted line: “Now is not the time for another referendum.”
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called Swinney’s comments “desperate stuff” and accused him of trying to distract from NHS waiting lists and ferry scandals.
Scottish Conservatives described it as “reckless gambling with Scotland’s future.”
But unionist parties sound rattled. They know the 2014 playbook – a clear pro-independence majority in Holyrood is impossible to ignore forever.
The Legal Reality Check
Everyone remembers 2022.
The UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that Holyrood cannot legislate for a referendum without Westminster’s consent.
That Section 30 order remains the only legal route.
But Swinney is banking on something more powerful than law: raw democratic legitimacy.
A thumping SNP victory in May, especially on a manifesto that explicitly promises to “immediately seek permission for indyref2”, would create political pressure no UK government could easily shrug off.
Especially if Starmer is clinging to power by his fingernails, as Swinney clearly believes he will be.
The Starmer Factor
The First Minister’s aside about Starmer’s survival is the comment everyone is talking about south of the border too.
Labour has endured a brutal winter: budget backlash, grooming gangs scandal, sleaze allegations, and plunging approval ratings.
Multiple Labour MPs have privately told journalists they expect a leadership challenge by spring if local elections in May 2026 go badly.
Swinney is reading the same tea leaves – and betting that a weakened or departed Starmer makes Westminster far more vulnerable to Scottish demands.
Scotland’s future could hinge on two elections in the same month: Holyrood on May 7 and English local elections the same day.
The stars are aligning in ways unionists never expected.
John Swinney has just made May 2026 the most consequential Scottish election since 2011.
He has turned it into a single-issue referendum on whether Scotland finally gets to choose again.
Ten years after “once in a generation”, the generation is demanding its second chance.
And this time, the mood feels very different.
What do you think – is indyref2 finally coming? Drop your thoughts below, and if you’re fired up, use #Indyref2IsComing on social media. The debate just exploded all over again.
