Scotland’s oil and gas sector is teetering on the edge of a mass employment crisis, with trade union Unite warning of an “avalanche” of job losses cascading through the industry. Hundreds of skilled contractors at key sites like Grangemouth and Mossmorran are facing redundancy in the coming weeks, in what could be the early stages of a far deeper collapse across the sector.
The immediate trigger: cost-cutting by oil giants like ExxonMobil and a steady downturn in operations — but underlying the turmoil is what some now call a failure of transition planning.
Mossmorran: First Domino Falls
At the Fife Ethylene Plant in Mossmorran, operated by ExxonMobil, the situation is turning bleak.
Altrad, a major contractor providing essential services such as insulation, access and protective coatings, has confirmed at least 98 redundancies. The firm cited a “downturn in work” and cost-saving pressures imposed by ExxonMobil as the reason for the cuts. At its peak, Altrad employed around 300 people at the plant.
Job losses are spreading to other key contractors:
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Bilfinger has issued 10 redundancy notices.
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Kaefer is cutting 55 jobs, also at Mossmorran.
Unite says these are just the early tremors in what could be a prolonged shake-up across Scotland’s oil and gas infrastructure.
Industry-Wide Forecast: 400 Jobs Lost Every Two Weeks
The redundancies follow a stark warning from a major academic study into the UK’s offshore energy workforce. The Striking the Balance report by Robert Gordon University (RGU) projected a loss of 400 oil and gas jobs every fortnight for the next five years — unless there’s immediate action.
Already, the UK’s oil and gas workforce has shrunk from 120,000 in 2023 to 115,000 in 2024. RGU’s analysis says offshore renewables, though growing, simply don’t yet have the capacity to absorb the thousands of displaced oil workers.
Sharon Graham, Unite’s General Secretary, put the blame squarely on the lack of a coherent jobs transition plan:
“There is an avalanche of redundancies taking place across Scotland’s oil and gas industry. These job losses highlight what Unite has been warning about for years. The UK and Scottish governments are failing to protect thousands of jobs. Policy decisions are actively accelerating job losses without offering any credible alternative.”
Grangemouth: A Strategic Site Under Threat
The warning signs have been blinking red for months at the Grangemouth refinery, one of Scotland’s largest industrial assets. A PWC impact study found the refinery generates £403.6 million per year for the Scottish economy and supports around 3,000 jobs, directly and indirectly.
But with PetroIneos planning to end oil refining at the site, the ripple effects are now being felt.
Unite says the government has failed to fast-track alternative energy projects at the site — particularly sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, which the union believes could rapidly create jobs if co-processing began immediately.
“The historic end of oil refining at Grangemouth is now causing the widely predicted domino effect,” said Derek Thomson, Unite’s Scottish Secretary. “Scotland is in serious danger of losing thousands of highly skilled jobs while creating no new opportunities in greener industries for workers to transition into.”
Nine Promises, No Projects
Project Willow, an industry initiative to repurpose the Grangemouth site, has identified nine potential developments. However, according to Unite, most wouldn’t begin until well after the refinery has shut down and jobs have already vanished.
The union is calling on the Scottish Government and PetroIneos to:
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Accelerate implementation of sustainable fuel projects
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Prioritise job retention for existing skilled workers
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Ensure a just transition strategy is in place — not just in rhetoric, but in investment and execution
Growing Fears of a Workforce Exodus
The loss of these jobs not only threatens Scotland’s economy but also risks a brain drain of skilled labour — many of whom may migrate to better opportunities abroad or leave the energy sector altogether.
RGU’s report emphasised this point, noting that unless governments act decisively, “highly experienced workers could exit the industry before their expertise is captured or transferred into emerging energy sectors.”
Summary Table: Key Impacts at a Glance
| Location | Company | Redundancies | Role/Services Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mossmorran | Altrad | 98+ | Insulation, access, coatings |
| Mossmorran | Kaefer | 55 | Contractor roles |
| Mossmorran | Bilfinger | 10 | Contractor roles |
| Grangemouth | Multiple | Ongoing | Refining and support infrastructure |
The warning from Unite is stark: unless urgent action is taken, Scotland risks overseeing the collapse of one of its most skilled industrial workforces — without a viable alternative to catch it.
As the energy transition accelerates, Scotland’s oil towns and workers may well be left behind in the name of progress — unless plans turn into action.
