Nifty Eyes Gap Higher as AI Rally Meets FII and Oil Tension

GIFT Nifty futures advanced about 62 to 100 points toward the 24,420-24,450 zone early Friday, pointing to a gap-up open for the Nifty 50 after Thursday’s close at 24,317.15. The cue came from a sharp Wall Street rebound led by Microsoft and a follow-through surge across Asia.

Sensex had finished Thursday at 77,928.15, up 273.55 points. Investors still watched elevated crude prices even as foreign funds turned buyers for the day.

Thursday’s Close Met a Shock Asia Rally

Indian benchmarks ended higher after a range-bound session helped by IT and auto names plus the foreign inflow. The move looked modest next to what followed overnight.

South Korea’s KOSPI jumped roughly 14 percent at points and held near that gain by midday Friday as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rocketed more than 20 percent each. Japan’s Nikkei added about 4 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.6 percent while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.2 percent.

• KOSPI: +14% class move on chipmakers
• Nikkei: +4% following US tech
• Nasdaq: +2.8% on the Microsoft spark
• S&P 500: +1.66%, Dow +1.19%

The scale of the Korean advance underlined how concentrated the AI hardware relief was. India opened higher near 24,350 on the Nifty then traded largely flat by late morning, with the IT index down about 1.5 percent while auto and capital goods gained.

Microsoft’s Numbers That Moved Global Screens

Microsoft reported fiscal fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and calmed fears its AI spending would stay cash-flow negative for longer. Revenue reached $90 billion, up 18 percent. Azure revenue rose 43 percent, ahead of the roughly 40 percent consensus. Full-year Azure crossed $100 billion at +41 percent.

Just wrapped our earnings call. It was a very strong close to what was a record fiscal year for Microsoft. Annual revenue: $331B, +18%. MS Cloud: $214B, +27%. And Azure: $100B, +41%. And even bigger opportunity ahead!

Satya Nadella posted that summary after the call, a line that drew more than 16,000 likes and two million views. The company also guided Azure growth at 45 percent constant currency for the next quarter and pointed to free cash flow that beat estimates even after heavy capital spending.

That combination flipped the narrative from AI cost concerns back to revenue proof. Chip and cloud names across Asia caught the bid immediately. The same proof landed more gently on Indian IT services, which still face their own margin and deal questions this earnings season.

One Strong FII Day Against a Huge Year-to-Date Hole

Foreign institutional investors bought shares worth ₹3,623.51 crore on Thursday. Domestic institutional investors sold ₹1,864 crore, per NSE data. The single-day foreign purchase stood out because the year-to-date picture remains deep red.

Official FII and DII trading activity reports update daily and remain the cleanest public track of these swings. A few buy days do not reverse eight months of outflows near ₹2.6 lakh crore. Still, the shift from persistent selling to even selective buying changes the near-term supply picture, especially if DIIs keep providing the other side.

Traders on X noted the first institutional buy after a short selling streak and linked it to the same AI sentiment that lifted global futures. The crowd also flagged that SIP and domestic flows have carried the market through the foreign exit for most of the year.

Defence Orders and Earnings That Hit the Tape

Several corporate updates gave the session concrete names beyond the index. Garden Reach Shipbuilders secured a notification of award from ONGC worth ₹1,032.07 crore for four platform supply vessels. Astra Microwave Products won a ₹2,205.23 crore order from HAL for Uttam Radar units and frames. Navin Fluorine signed with DRDO for indigenous sodium borohydride manufacturing.

Swiggy’s Instamart quick-commerce arm hit a break-even contribution target in May and posted overall contribution near flat for the quarter. Tata Steel’s India operations drove the profit rise on higher total income of ₹61,027 crore. These prints sit alongside heavyweight results still due, including names that often set the tone for the broader market.

Defence and shipyard order flow has become a repeated positive thread this results season. It gives domestic manufacturing a concrete bid even when global tech leadership remains with US and Korean hardware names.

Support Holds, Calls Cap the Upside

Technically the Nifty closed above its hourly 20- and 50-period EMAs for a second day and defended the 24,300 zone on the daily chart. Longer-term charts still treat a monthly close above 24,000 as a milestone. Near-term the 24,000-24,100 band is the key support cluster. Resistance sits near 24,500 with 24,600 calls showing the highest open interest for the weekly expiry.

• Strongest put OI: 24,000 strikes (floor signal)
• Heavy put build: 24,000-24,200 zone
• Highest call OI: 24,600 (near-term ceiling)
• Major resistance reference: 24,500

Understanding how GIFT Nifty signals the opening gap remains useful: the overnight premium or discount versus the prior Nifty close is the market’s first real-time vote on global news. Similar earlier AI-led Wall Street lift for Indian opens produced gap-ups that sometimes faded once local flows and sector rotation took over.

Friday also carries expiry dynamics. Crowds on X repeatedly warned that sharp swings on expiry often reflect position squaring rather than fresh directional conviction. The same voices pointed to crude still near multi-week highs as the main domestic risk if prices reverse higher again. Falling oil, by contrast, would remove a headwind for the index. Those expiry-day support patterns traders watch have mattered before when OI concentrated at round numbers.

What the Tape Showed by Midday

After the higher open, Sensex and Nifty slipped into a narrow range. Auto and metal names led the advance side while FMCG and parts of IT lagged. Volume shockers and individual order winners such as Astra Microwave appeared in the gainers, consistent with the defence theme. Bank Nifty hovered near flat with mixed private and PSU names.

The pattern matched the second-order reading: global AI relief arrives, GIFT prices a gap, yet local IT does not automatically re-rate, crude keeps a bid under caution, and expiry OI caps easy upside. One solid FII day helps the open. It does not erase the YTD foreign selling total that still sits near ₹2.6 lakh crore.

The Session’s Real Constraint

Nifty starts Friday with the wind of Microsoft’s Azure proof and a fresh foreign buy print at its back. The same session faces the weight of heavy year-to-date outflows, oil that has already squeezed margins and sentiment, and an options wall that rewards defence of 24,000 more than a clean run at 24,600. How those three forces settle by the close will matter more than the opening print.