A landmark report released today draws on 25 years of survey data to show that the tie between how Scots see their national identity and their stance on independence has grown much tighter. This shift explains the rise in support for Scotland breaking away from the UK, even though broader opinions have stayed fairly steady compared to the rest of the country.
Devolution’s Lasting Impact After 25 Years
The Scottish Parliament opened its doors in 1999 with big hopes from the Labour government in Westminster. Leaders thought the new setup would meet Scotland’s unique needs while keeping the UK intact, and that calls for full independence would fade over time.
Instead, the parliament has become a key part of daily life north of the border. It sparked debates on policies that sometimes differ from those in England, and it highlighted Scotland’s own sense of self. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey has tracked these changes since the start, offering a clear picture of how people feel about their government and country.
Over the decades, the survey has asked the same core questions year after year. This lets experts spot trends in everything from trust in leaders to views on big issues like health and economy. The latest analysis, covering data up to last fall, paints a picture of stability mixed with subtle shifts that matter a lot for the independence debate.
How National Identity Shapes Views Today
Scots have long felt a stronger pull toward their Scottish roots than British ones. Right from the start in 1999, about two thirds of people said they felt mostly or only Scottish. That number sits at nearly six in ten today, with just one in ten claiming to feel mostly or only British.
This pattern has not swung wildly over time. People who see themselves as purely Scottish are far more likely to back independence now than they were back then. In 1999, only about four in ten of those with a strong Scottish identity wanted to leave the UK. Fast forward to now, and that figure has climbed to over half.
The survey breaks down identity into clear groups, which helps explain the trends:
- Scottish not British: Around 40% of respondents, up slightly from 1999.
- More Scottish than British: About 20%, holding steady.
- Equally Scottish and British: 22%, no real change.
- More British than Scottish: 7%, down a bit.
- British not Scottish: 3%, very low.
These categories show why identity matters so much. Those with dual feelings tend to split on independence, while strong Scottish identifiers lean heavily yes.
Policy Preferences Remain Close to UK Norms
Experts often say Scots lean more to the left on social issues than folks in England. The data backs this up, but the difference is small and has not grown bigger. On a scale measuring tolerance for inequality, Scotland scores around 33 out of 100, while England is at 35. Back in 2000, it was 34 versus 38, so the gap has even narrowed a touch.
Views on taxes and spending tell a similar story. Scots usually favor a bit more government help funded by higher taxes, but shifts happen in step with the rest of the UK. When England moves toward cutting back, Scotland follows suit, and vice versa. This parallel movement means no big split has opened up on core economic ideas.
| Year | Average Inequality Score (Scotland) | Average Inequality Score (England) | Support for Higher Taxes/Spending (Scotland %) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 34 | 38 | 55 |
| 2010 | 32 | 36 | 52 |
| 2020 | 34 | 37 | 58 |
| 2024 | 33 | 35 | 56 |
This table highlights the steady patterns. No wild jumps, just small tweaks that keep Scotland in line with broader UK thinking.
Why Independence Support Keeps Climbing
Even without major changes in overall attitudes, backing for independence has jumped from 27% in 1999 to 47% today. The key reason is that existing differences in Scotland, like stronger Scottish identity, now line up more directly with yes or no votes on the issue.
Back in the early days, British-leaning Scots almost never supported leaving, while Scottish-only folks were split. Now, the lines are sharper. Over 70% of those who feel only Scottish want independence, compared to under 10% of British identifiers. This tighter link means small identity shifts can swing opinion more.
The 2014 referendum played a big role too. Support spiked before and after the vote, and it has held fairly steady since. Recent polls from early 2025 put no at 54%, but the survey data suggests the yes side is gaining ground slowly. Events like Brexit and UK-wide policy fights have added fuel, making some Scots question the union more.
Trust in institutions has taken a hit lately, which ties into this. Only 47% of Scots now trust the Scottish Government to act in the country’s best interest, the lowest since 1999. That’s down from 61% in 2019. Satisfaction with the NHS has dropped too, amid ongoing pressures.
Fresh Momentum in the Independence Drive
Just yesterday, First Minister John Swinney laid out new plans for independence in a speech at the Scottish National Portrait Gallery. He released a paper called A Fresh Start with Independence, arguing that breaking away would boost the economy and fix issues like NHS waits. Swinney claims households could gain up to 10,000 pounds a year under independence.
This comes as the SNP pushes for a referendum if they win big in future elections. Swinney urged the UK government to respect Scotland’s choice, drawing on past precedents. Critics say it is just more talk without real progress, but supporters see it as a vital step.
On social media and forums, opinions rage. Some users stress that independence is about self rule, not anti English feelings. Others worry about borders and EU entry if Scotland goes solo. Reddit threads from recent months show mixed views, with many wondering if a yes vote will ever happen.
Broader talks link identity to religion and culture too. Non religious Scots back independence more, at around 40%, while church goers split differently. Recent events, like UK political shifts under Labour, have some saying a rightward turn in Westminster could push support to 60% if figures like Nigel Farage gain power.
What Lies Ahead for Scotland’s Union
Looking forward, these trends suggest the independence question will not fade soon. With devolution marking 25 years, Scotland faces choices on trust, identity, and governance. The survey data urges leaders to address why the identity independence link is so strong now.
As Scotland navigates economic woes and global changes, the debate will heat up. Readers, what do you think about these findings? Share your thoughts in the comments below and spread the word by sharing this article with friends and family to keep the conversation going.
