As John Swinney prepares to unveil his Programme for Government on Tuesday, his party’s past pledges are coming under sharp focus — and the results are decidedly mixed.
Three years since the SNP won the 2021 Holyrood election, the manifesto that helped carry them to power is showing its age. Some pledges have been delivered. Others were shelved, delayed, or quietly dropped as political chaos, global crises, and domestic pressure mounted.
This moment offers a revealing audit of what Scotland’s ruling party has managed to achieve — and what it hasn’t.
NHS: A Win on Funding, A Collapse on Care Reform
Frontline NHS funding was top of the SNP’s 2021 list — and here, the party overdelivered. From £12 billion in 2020 to over £16 billion in 2025, spending soared by nearly 30%, far exceeding the 20% promise.
Staff pay increases also beat expectations. While the manifesto pledged an average 4% rise, public sector deals climbed much higher in response to inflation and labour unrest.
But the crowning reform — creation of a National Care Service — has unraveled. Years of consultation, growing opposition from councils and unions, and political headwinds ultimately killed the bill. What was once a flagship policy turned into a legislative shipwreck.
Income Tax: A Clear U-Turn
The SNP promised to freeze income tax rates and bands. It didn’t last.
In 2023, the higher and top rates were increased. By 2024, a new “advanced rate” was introduced. For higher earners, Scotland has diverged sharply from the rest of the UK.
Why the U-turn? Swinney’s government opted to raise revenue to sustain spending — particularly on health and education — rather than impose cuts elsewhere. The cost-of-living crisis and post-pandemic pressures left little room for neutrality.
Green Heating Goals Abandoned
One of the most eye-catching failures involves the environment.
The pledge to decarbonise the heating of one million homes by 2030 has officially been dropped. Ministers cited cost pressures and energy price volatility, but the collapse of the SNP-Green coalition also played a pivotal role.
The Heat in Buildings Bill, championed by former Green minister Patrick Harvie, was torn up shortly after Humza Yousaf dismissed the Greens from government. John Swinney has made no moves to revive it.
Education and Child Poverty: Some Hits, Many Misses
Nicola Sturgeon made narrowing the attainment gap her “defining mission.” That gap remains.
Still, the SNP stuck with its promise to invest £1 billion in the Scottish Attainment Challenge fund. And the Scottish Child Payment — a cornerstone of the party’s anti-poverty message — has exceeded targets, rising from £10 in 2021 to £27.15 in 2025.
But several child-focused pledges have stumbled:
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Free school meals and breakfasts for all pupils never made it to universal rollout. The government has limited the offer to lower-income families.
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3,500 new teachers and classroom assistants turned into a goal to reverse staffing declines — not to increase headcount.
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Free laptops or tablets for every schoolchild were scrapped after councils redirected funds to settle public sector pay deals.
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Free bikes for disadvantaged children started with an in-house pilot, then devolved to third-sector partnerships — far from a universal scheme.
Affordable Homes and the Just Transition: In Progress, But Fragile
In housing, the SNP set a long-term goal: 110,000 new affordable homes by 2032.
That target hasn’t been abandoned, but internal memos suggest it’s in trouble. A December 2023 briefing warned it was “at risk” due to sluggish planning approvals and funding cuts — some of which were later reversed.
Likewise, the £500 million Just Transition Fund has been rolled out — but over 10 years, not within the current parliamentary term. As of 2025, only a fraction has been spent.
The £33 billion National Infrastructure Mission? Still theoretically alive, but inflation and tighter capital budgets have slowed delivery. In October 2024, ministers paused new major projects to focus on maintenance and safeguarding services.
Transport: Rail in Public Hands, Buses Still Running on Diesel
On transport, the SNP delivered on one high-profile promise: bringing ScotRail into public ownership. That move had actually been announced just before the 2021 vote.
But other ambitions proved overreaching:
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Decarbonising the rail network by 2035 has now been pushed back to 2045.
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Removing most fossil fuel buses by 2023 never happened. Despite government funding for 800 zero-emission vehicles, about 70% of Scotland’s bus fleet still runs on diesel, according to Transform Scotland.
Independence: A Promise That Collapsed Into Silence
No review of the SNP’s delivery record is complete without addressing independence.
In 2021, the manifesto promised a second referendum once the Covid crisis had passed.
That plan died in the Supreme Court. Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to force a legal vote failed, and her fallback plan for a “de facto” referendum — using the general election as a proxy — dissolved alongside her leadership.
Since then, constitutional talk has largely vanished from the government’s agenda. The Copenhagen diplomatic office opened, but wider international engagement has been limited. The idea of rejoining the EU, once central to the SNP’s independence pitch, now feels remote.
Swinney’s Challenge: A “Year of Delivery” or Reckoning?
John Swinney is calling this next year a “year of delivery.” But the challenge he faces isn’t just about implementing new policies — it’s salvaging a governing record that has become increasingly patchy.
Voters will return to the polls in May 2026. Whether this government is seen as one that kept its promises or broke them may well decide the SNP’s fate.
