The political landscapes of Scotland and Wales are teetering on the edge of historic disruption, and a major new data release is about to shed light on exactly where the chips might fall. With the May 2026 elections looming, think tanks PolicyWISE and Enlighten have announced an exclusive event to reveal “surprising” new polling that could redefine our understanding of voter priorities in both nations.
Scheduled for Monday, February 23, the event promises to go beyond standard horse-race numbers. Instead, it will offer a deep dive into the policy demands driving the electorate and the appetite for cross-border cooperation at a time when the traditional dominance of Labour and the SNP is under unprecedented strain.
The Stakes for May 2026
The timing of this data release could not be more critical. The upcoming elections in May are shaping up to be the most consequential since the dawn of devolution. In Wales, recent trends suggest a potential “political earthquake,” with Labour facing a historic collapse in support and Plaid Cymru surging toward a possible majority. Meanwhile, in Scotland, the SNP faces a fragmented electorate, with no single party guaranteed a clear path to a majority at Holyrood.
This exclusive polling, conducted in partnership with More in Common, aims to peel back the layers of this volatility. It will explore not just who voters are backing, but why. From the cost-of-living crisis to the management of public services, understanding the specific policy priorities of the public in both nations is essential for predicting the outcome of the May vote.
The Reform Factor and Labour’s Crisis
One of the most anticipated aspects of the new data will be its insights into the rise of insurgent parties. Recent months have seen Reform UK polling strongly in both nations, threatening to upend the calculations of established parties. In Wales, the shift has been particularly dramatic, with polls earlier this year showing Reform overtaking the Conservatives and challenging Labour’s traditional strongholds.
The PolicyWISE and Enlighten event will likely provide crucial context on this trend. Are these voters driven by specific policy failures, or a broader anti-establishment sentiment? Furthermore, with Scottish Labour struggling to capitalize on the UK-wide Labour government’s position, the polling will offer vital clues on whether the party can regain momentum north of the border or if the SNP will maintain its dominance despite its own challenges.
A Cross-Nation Lens on Policy
What sets this upcoming reveal apart is its comparative approach. PolicyWISE, known for its focus on cross-nation policy learning, has designed the survey to contrast attitudes in Scotland and Wales directly. This includes a look at how voters view the relationship between their devolved governments and the UK administration.
- Policy Priorities: What issues matter most to a voter in Cardiff compared to one in Glasgow?
- Cooperation: Is there public support for the Scottish and Welsh governments working more closely together?
- UK Relations: How has the dynamic with Westminster evolved in the eyes of the electorate?
Dewi Knight, Director of PolicyWISE, and his team are expected to highlight “surprises” in the results, suggesting that the public mood may have shifted in ways that political strategists have yet to fully grasp.
Expert Panel to Dissect the Data
To unpack these complex findings, the event will feature a heavyweight panel of experts capable of bridging the gap between raw data and political reality. Chaired by Chris Deerin, Director of Enlighten (the independent think tank formerly known as Reform Scotland), the discussion will bring together leading voices in governance and polling.
The Panel Lineup:
- Professor Nicola McEwen: A leading authority on territorial politics from the University of Glasgow’s Centre for Public Policy.
- Charlie Buckley: Researcher at More in Common, who will provide the technical breakdown of the survey data.
- Dewi Knight: Director of PolicyWISE, offering the comparative policy perspective.
The event will take place via Zoom on Monday, February 23, at 1:00 pm. For political observers, journalists, and voters trying to make sense of a chaotic election year, this discussion promises to be an essential briefing.
How to Attend: Those interested in the future of the Union and the devolved nations can secure their spot by RSVPing to events@enlighten.scot. Login details will be provided upon registration.
As we countdown to May, the insights revealed on the 23rd could well dictate the narrative of the final months of the campaign. With the potential for new governments in both Edinburgh and Cardiff, understanding the public pulse has never been more important.
