A new investigation shows that Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s pledge to secure thousands of defence jobs in Scotland through a major warship deal falls short of reality. The report highlights deep insecurities at key shipyards in Govan and Scotstoun, where work may not last beyond the next decade despite government claims.
The £10bn Norway Deal Sparks Job Hopes
In August 2025, the UK government sealed a landmark £10 billion agreement to build Type 26 frigates for the Norwegian navy. These advanced anti-submarine warships will take shape at BAE Systems’ facility in Govan, Glasgow, with construction set to bolster the local economy.
Starmer celebrated the deal as a win for Scottish workers. He pointed out that it would directly support around 2000 jobs at the shipyards themselves. Beyond that, another 2000 positions in the supply chain could benefit from the influx of orders, according to official statements.
This move fits into the broader UK defence strategy outlined in the 2025 Strategic Defence Review. That plan calls for increased military spending to reach 5 percent of GDP by the end of the decade, aiming to strengthen NATO ties amid global tensions. For Scotland, the deal seemed like a lifeline for its historic shipbuilding sector, which has faced ups and downs for years.
Yet, just weeks after the announcement in September 2025, BAE Systems revealed plans to cut 116 management jobs across its operations. This news hit hard in Glasgow, raising early doubts about the stability of the promised employment boom.
Probe Uncovers Hidden Job Risks
The Transition Security Project’s recent probe paints a stark picture of life at the Govan and Scotstoun yards. Researchers spoke directly with workers, who shared stories of uncertainty that contradict the upbeat government narrative.
Work at these sites might only continue for about another ten years, the investigation concludes. Once the current batch of frigates wraps up, including those for Norway, the pipeline could dry up without fresh contracts. This timeline clashes with the long-term security Starmer described.
Agency workers form a big part of the workforce here. Many face precarious situations tied to their migration status, making their roles even more unstable. The report notes that these temporary hires help keep costs down but leave families vulnerable to sudden layoffs.
In a related development, BAE’s 2025 recruitment drive for over 2400 apprentices and graduates shows some growth. However, the simultaneous job cuts suggest a mixed bag, where new entries come at the expense of experienced staff.
Harsh Realities Inside the Shipyards
Workers painted a tough scene during interviews for the probe. They described poor conditions that slow down production and raise safety worries.
Delays plague the projects, often due to supply issues and quality control problems. Fire risks add another layer of concern, with some areas lacking proper safeguards.
Low quality in parts of the build process stems from rushed timelines and understaffing. One worker mentioned how these issues lead to rework, eating into schedules and budgets.
The yards employ about 4000 people in total across Govan and Scotstoun, making them a cornerstone of Glasgow’s economy. But the investigation argues that without changes, this vital sector could falter.
Here are key findings from the worker interviews:
- Frequent use of agency staff leads to high turnover and skill gaps.
- Safety hazards, including fire risks, go unaddressed in busy periods.
- Production delays stem from outdated equipment and poor planning.
- Migration-linked vulnerabilities make many jobs feel temporary.
Green Shift Offers a Better Path
The report does not stop at criticism. It proposes a smart alternative: repurposing the shipyards for offshore wind manufacturing.
Naval yards worldwide have successfully made this switch. Scotland’s strong winds and push for net zero by 2045 make it a prime spot for such a pivot.
Converting the facilities could create more stable jobs in the renewable sector. Experts point to examples in Denmark and Germany, where former defence sites now build turbine components.
This idea ties into Scotland’s energy transition goals. Recent openings, like the largest skills hub for renewables in October 2025, aim to train 1000 job seekers. Linking shipbuilding expertise to green tech could secure employment for decades.
Government support for diversification remains limited so far. Yet, with UK defence budgets under scrutiny, exploring these options makes sense for long-term growth.
Doubts Grow Over Defence Dividend
The UK often touts a “defence dividend” to justify rising military outlays. Officials claim it brings economic perks, especially jobs, to regions like Scotland.
But fresh analysis challenges this view. Studies show defence spending yields fewer jobs per pound than other public investments.
For instance, a recent commentary highlighted stark differences in efficiency. To illustrate, consider this comparison:
| Sector | Jobs Supported per £1 Million Spent |
|---|---|
| UK Defence Procurement | 9.4 |
| Transport for London | 13.7 |
| Offshore Wind Projects | 15.2 (estimated) |
These figures come from reliable economic reviews and underscore why alternatives might deliver more bang for the buck. In 2024-25, UK defence industry spending hit £31.7 billion, up 6 percent in real terms, yet the job multiplier lags behind.
Critics argue that pouring funds into arms over infrastructure or green energy misses chances for broader prosperity. As global threats evolve, including climate risks, a balanced approach could better serve workers and the nation.
This investigation arrives at a pivotal moment, with ongoing debates about Scotland’s role in UK defence. It urges a rethink on how military deals truly impact communities.
What do you think about shifting shipyards to green energy? Share your views in the comments below and spread the word by sharing this article with friends.
