If recent polling numbers hold, Reform UK could secure 15 seats in the next Holyrood election. That would mark a seismic shift in Scottish politics. The party, formerly known as the Brexit Party, has surged from a mere 2% of the vote in the 2019 general election to a staggering 26% across the UK—overtaking Labour by a single percentage point.
Should a general election be called today, Reform could shatter Labour’s electoral dominance, according to current projections. Political tides shift quickly, and what rises fast can fall just as suddenly. Labour may soon find itself in that position.
Tory Defections and Local Support
Last week, Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice visited Glasgow’s Trongate to welcome two new defectors: Renfrewshire councillor John Gray and South Lanarkshire’s Ross Lambie. Their switch gives Reform a total of eight councillors in Scotland.
Tice took the opportunity to claim that First Minister John Swinney is “terrified” of Reform’s momentum. Swinney’s response? A planned meeting with Holyrood parties and civic groups to discuss how to counter what he calls a “politics of fear.”
“Storm clouds are gathering,” Swinney warned. “The threat from the far right is real, but that leaves me all the more convinced that working together is not only the right choice but the only choice.”
Thomas Kerr, a Glasgow Shettleston councillor who defected to Reform in January, sees Swinney’s approach as undemocratic. He argues that the First Minister is using his position to unite political opponents against Reform rather than engaging in fair competition.
What’s Driving Reform’s Popularity?
Political apathy and frustration with mainstream parties seem to be fueling Reform’s growth. Many Scots feel alienated by what they see as managerial politics—a lot of movement, but little progress.
- Public dissatisfaction: Issues like housing, education, healthcare, and public services are often sidelined in favor of ideological debates.
- Green party backlash: Some believe there has been an overemphasis on environmental policies at the expense of economic and social priorities.
- Discontent with Labour: Reform’s rise mirrors a broader rejection of Labour, which many voters see as out of touch.
These factors have created a political vacuum. Reform, with its populist rhetoric and anti-establishment stance, has stepped in to fill the gap.
The Immigration Debate
Reform UK has focused heavily on immigration, promising to “end illegal immigration” and significantly cut legal migration. Their proposals include leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and implementing a “one in, one out” migration system.
However, the reality is more complex. The UK, like 147 other nations, is a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention. In the year leading up to September 2024, the UK received nearly 100,000 asylum applications. While significant, this number pales in comparison to figures in Germany (294,415), France (162,390), Italy (162,305), and Spain (161,470).
Reform’s message on immigration resonates with a portion of the electorate, but critics argue that it oversimplifies an issue tied to international agreements and economic realities.
Can Reform Be Stopped?
Reform’s rise presents a challenge to the established political order. If mainstream parties hope to curb its influence, they will need to do more than dismiss it outright.
Brexit, once Reform’s flagship issue, has left a trail of economic consequences. But does the party have the solutions voters seek? Or is it simply capitalizing on discontent?
Scotland’s political landscape is shifting. Whether Reform’s momentum continues—or fades just as quickly—will depend on how traditional parties respond in the coming months.
