As the Scottish football season progresses into its second half, there’s a lot at stake for clubs looking to secure European spots for next season. The once-powerful coefficient, which has allowed Scottish teams to enjoy better access to top European competitions, is on the decline, making the race for places even more competitive.
Changing Landscape of Champions League Qualification
For the past three seasons, Celtic, as champions, have enjoyed direct qualification to the Champions League’s group or league phase, bypassing the nerve-wracking qualifiers. However, this will no longer be the case starting next season. The Scottish champions will now enter the Champions League in the play-off round. They will need to win one two-legged tie against another domestic champion from a country ranked lower in the coefficient standings, such as Serbia, Greece, or Denmark, to reach the league phase of the competition.
The Possibility of Sneaking In
Celtic, who have enjoyed the guaranteed qualification, may now have to navigate this play-off round. However, there remains a slim chance they could sneak directly into the group stage. If the reigning Champions League winner has already qualified through their domestic league, their spot will be allocated to the team with the best five-year coefficient, provided they haven’t already qualified. While Celtic’s position might not make them favorites for this spot, Rangers could have an advantage due to their higher ranking following their strong performances in the Europa League.
Europa League and Conference League: Paths for the Runners-Up
The rewards for finishing in the Champions League play-off round are still significant, even if the direct group stage qualification is no longer guaranteed. Should the Premiership champions fail in their play-off tie, they will still secure a spot in the Europa League. This ensures that even a failure to qualify for Europe’s elite club competition brings lucrative European nights and valuable experience.
For the Premiership runners-up, the situation has also worsened. Last season, Rangers started their Champions League qualification in the third round but were eliminated by Dynamo Kyiv. This season, the starting point has been moved to the second round, meaning the runners-up will now have to navigate three qualifying rounds to secure a place in the group stage. However, there is a silver lining: as long as they win at least one tie, the second-place team will earn a guaranteed place in the Europa League, providing a path to European competition, though not the Champions League.
A Realistic Scenario for Scotland’s European Hopes
With the decline in the coefficient rankings, Scottish clubs now have more hurdles to clear to reach Europe’s most prestigious tournaments. Celtic will face the challenge of entering the Champions League play-off round, while Rangers, depending on their position, could find themselves in a similar situation or chasing a spot in the Europa League.
The tightening of European places means that clubs must not only secure higher league finishes but also succeed in critical qualifying rounds to maintain a consistent presence in Europe. This not only affects the prestige of the clubs but also impacts the financial rewards that come with playing in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League.
