Scotland’s top pollster has delivered a brutal verdict: the SNP is being gifted victory in May’s Holyrood election while Keir Starmer’s Labour Party tears itself apart at Westminster.
Professor John Curtice warned that Scottish Labour may gain nothing from a change of UK leader because the damage is already done, and voters have made up their minds.
Curtice’s Damning Assessment
Speaking exclusively to the Daily Record, the University of Strathclyde academic said Labour’s toxic ratings under Starmer are dragging Anas Sarwar down with them.
“The SNP is being handed victory on a plate,” Curtice declared.
He pointed out that Labour’s unpopularity south of the border is now the single biggest factor hurting Scottish Labour’s chances, outweighing even local issues.
The respected pollster added: “People’s perceptions of the UK Government’s record under Starmer are very heavily weighing Labour down in Scotland right now.”
Leadership Change Won’t Save Sarwar
Curtice poured cold water on hopes that dumping Starmer would give Scottish Labour an instant bounce.
Any leadership contest could drag on for months, leaving the party in limbo right through the Holyrood campaign.
“Is somebody crowned as a successor that both left and right are happy with, or do we get a messy contest?” he asked.
The answer, he suggested, will decide whether Scottish Labour gets a lifeline or sinks completely.
Latest polls show Labour trailing the SNP by double digits in Holyrood voting intention, with the gap widening since Christmas.
SNP Still Below 2021 Peak
Despite the gift from Westminster, Curtice cautioned that the SNP’s position remains fragile.
John Swinney’s party is polling around 34-36% for the constituency vote, fully 14 points below the 47.7% they achieved in 2021.
That drop reflects voter fatigue after 18 years in power and the fallout from the Salmond and Sturgeon eras.
Yet Labour has failed to capitalise, stuck in the low 20s in most surveys.
Reform Hits Scottish Ceiling
Curtice also predicted Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has reached its limit north of the border.
After surging to double digits in some UK-wide polls, Reform is struggling to break 8-10% in Scotland-specific surveys.
The party’s anti-immigration, small-state message has found some traction in working-class former Labour areas, but cultural differences blunt its appeal.
“They may have hit a ceiling,” Curtice said. “Scotland remains resistant to the full Farage effect we’ve seen in England.”
What Voters Are Telling Pollsters
Recent focus groups reveal deep anger toward the Starmer government among traditional Labour supporters in Scotland.
Freebies scandal, winter fuel cuts, and perceived sleaze have all taken their toll.
One Glasgow voter told researchers: “I voted Labour to get the Tories out, but they’ve turned out just as bad.”
Another in Lanarkshire said: “I’ll hold my nose and vote SNP again because at least they’re not Westminster Labour.”
These sentiments explain why Anas Sarwar’s personal ratings remain respectable while his party’s brand is toxic.
The May 2026 Battleground
With less than three months until polling day, the numbers paint a grim picture for Scottish Labour.
Current projections from Scotland’s leading polling aggregators:
- SNP: 54-60 seats
- Labour: 28-34 seats
- Conservatives: 18-22 seats
- Greens: 8-10 seats
- Lib Dems: 6-8 seats
That would leave John Swinney comfortably short of a majority but easily able to govern with Green support.
For Labour to overtake the SNP, they would need a swing of around 10 points, something not seen in any poll since the general election.
John Curtice’s final warning was stark: unless Starmer’s leadership crisis is resolved quickly and cleanly, Scottish Labour faces a generation in opposition.
The SNP, battered and bruised after years in power, is being handed a reprieve it barely deserves, courtesy of a Westminster government that Scottish voters have decisively rejected.
As one veteran Labour MSP admitted privately this week: “We’re fighting this election with one hand tied behind our back, and the rope is being held in Downing Street.”
Scotland deserves better than choosing between a tired SNP government and a Labour Party crippled by its own UK leadership. Yet that appears to be the choice voters will face in May.
