The Six Nations is heading for an unforgettable finale. Scotland’s sensational 50-40 thriller against France at Murrayfield blew the championship wide open, ending Les Bleus’ Grand Slam dreams and putting three teams in genuine contention. France, Scotland, and Ireland all still have a path to glory on Super Saturday, 14 March. One day, three matches, and the oldest trophy in rugby will have a new home.
France remain favourites thanks to their huge points difference, but they will know exactly what they need when they kick off last against England in Paris. Scotland can dream of a first title since 1999. Ireland, meanwhile, need to beat the Scots and pray Twickenham delivers an upset.
Here is exactly how the title can be won.
Current Six Nations Standings (After Round 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | PD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +79 | 16 |
| 2 | Scotland | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +21 | 16 |
| 3 | Ireland | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +16 | 14 |
| 4 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -24 | 9 |
| 5 | England | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 6 |
| 6 | Wales | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -96 | 1 |
What France Need (v England, 8:10pm, Paris)
Fabien Galthié’s side are in the driving seat.
- A bonus-point victory (win + 4 tries) guarantees the title, no matter what happens earlier in the day. They would reach at least 20 points with a points difference that nobody can catch.
- Even a normal win (4 points) will be enough unless Scotland secure a bonus-point win in Dublin AND overturn a 58-point swing in points difference. That is almost impossible in one match.
- If France lose, they can still win the championship if Scotland fail to pick up a bonus point or Ireland do not win big.
Bottom line: France control their own destiny. Beat England with a bonus point and the trophy is theirs.
What Scotland Need (v Ireland, 2:10pm, Dublin)
Gregor Townsend’s team produced the performance of the championship so far with that 90-point classic against France. Now they have a real shot at a first Six Nations title in the professional era.
To win the championship, Scotland must:
- Beat Ireland with a bonus point (5 match points) — taking them to 21 points.
- Hope France fail to get a bonus point against England (i.e. France get 0, 1, or 2 points max).
Even then, France’s points difference advantage is so large that only a cricket-score win in Dublin plus a heavy England victory in Paris would hand Scotland the crown on PD.
Realistically, Scotland’s best hope is a bonus-point win followed by an England upset in Paris. Stranger things have happened in this tournament.
A first title since 1999 would be one of the greatest stories in Scottish sport.
What Ireland Need (v Scotland, 2:10pm, Dublin)
Andy Farrell’s defending champions are outsiders now, but they are not out.
Ireland must:
- Beat Scotland (ideally with a bonus point) — taking them to 18 or 19 points.
- Pray England beat France in Paris without France picking up a try bonus.
If Ireland win by a big margin and take the try bonus, they could reach 19 points. France would then need to lose by enough for Ireland to overtake them on points difference — again, a huge ask.
Ireland have won the last 11 meetings against Scotland. Another victory in Dublin keeps their hopes alive until the final whistle in Paris.
Super Saturday Schedule – 14 March
- Ireland vs Scotland – 2:10pm GMT – Aviva Stadium, Dublin
- Wales vs Italy – 4:40pm GMT – Principality Stadium, Cardiff
- France vs England – 8:10pm GMT – Stade de France, Paris
Three matches, three stories, one champion.
Wales are almost certain to finish with the wooden spoon, but pride is still on the line against an improving Italy side.
Whatever happens, this is why we love the Six Nations. No play-offs, no second chances — just 240 minutes of rugby that will be talked about for years.
Who are you backing? Can Scotland finally end the drought? Will France hold their nerve? Or can Ireland pull off another great escape?
Drop your predictions in the comments and get involved on social media with #SixNations and #SuperSaturday.
The trophy awaits.
