In a surprising twist, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is encountering headwinds in the upcoming general election, with Labour poised for a historic victory. The latest poll results reveal a significant shift in voting intentions among Scots, potentially reshaping the political landscape north of the border.

The Poll Numbers

According to a recent Survation poll commissioned by advisory firm True North, Labour is projected to win over 30 constituencies currently held by the SNP. Here are the key findings:

• Labour’s Surge: The survey indicates that 36% of Scots intend to vote for Labour, while 32% favor the SNP. This momentum places Labour in a strong position to secure 28 seats, their highest total since 2010.

• SNP’s Decline: The SNP, which has dominated Scottish elections for over a decade, faces a potential reduction to just 16 MPs based on these poll results. This would mark a significant setback for the party.

• Conservatives and Lib Dems: The Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats trail behind, with 17% and 9% of the vote, respectively.

Leadership Ratings

In addition to voting intentions, the poll assessed the favorability of party leaders:

• Keir Starmer: The UK Labour leader enjoys the highest net favorability rating among Westminster party leaders in Scotland, standing at +3%.

• Anas Sarwar: The Scottish Labour leader’s favorability rating is at -3%.

• John Swinney: The First Minister of Scotland, representing the SNP, has a net favorability rating of -7%.

Electoral Earthquake

The poll results suggest that Labour is well-positioned to overturn several SNP-held seats in central belt Scotland. If this trend continues, Labour could emerge as the largest party in Edinburgh, potentially replacing the SNP in Holyrood. However, despite the surge, Labour would still fall 17 seats short of an outright majority.

The NHS Factor

While the election campaign unfolds, the state of the National Health Service (NHS) remains a critical issue. The SNP’s handling of healthcare has faced scrutiny, with concerns about waiting times and resource allocation. As the parties vie for votes, the NHS crisis looms large, impacting voters’ decisions

With five weeks of campaigning ahead, the general election appears to be Labour’s to lose. However, the SNP will strive to regain momentum under new leadership. As the electoral landscape shifts, Scotland braces for seismic changes, and voters prepare to cast their ballots in a closely contested race.