A new report aims to give Scotland’s independence movement a clear stance on currency — and end years of confusion, infighting, and political hesitancy.
The Scottish Currency Group (SCG) has tapped a respected European economist to lead a deep analysis into Scotland’s post-independence currency options. The move is being framed as a serious bid to unite the Yes movement and confront what’s long been one of the trickiest issues in the push for independence: what currency would Scotland actually use?
French Economist, Danish Base, Scottish Focus
At the centre of this initiative is Dr Thibault Laurentjoye — a French economist based in Denmark who’s already gained attention for his work on Welsh independence.
The SCG says Laurentjoye was chosen because he brings academic credibility and international neutrality to a heated domestic issue.
“He’s got no axe to grind,” said Tim Rideout, SCG founder and long-time independence advocate. “He’s a monetary economist who knows about foreign exchange and currency regimes — exactly the kind of person who can give us something that’s bulletproof.”
Laurentjoye previously authored a major 2024 report for the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales. That paper examined sterlingisation, a national currency, and other monetary models. Now he’s adapting that work for Scotland.
Aiming for One Answer Everyone Can Stand Behind
The stakes are high — and the goal is ambitious. Rideout said the hope is that the report will finally give the Yes movement a position everyone can stand behind, especially the SNP leadership.
And it’s not just about preferences. The SCG believes the SNP’s current strategy — to share sterling with the UK post-independence — isn’t just unrealistic, it’s risky.
“The whole idea that you can keep using the GDP pound while claiming to be independent? That just doesn’t work,” said Rideout.
The final report will be delivered in two stages:
-
A preliminary version in October this year, which will update the Welsh study for a Scottish context.
-
A full report by October 2026 that dives into financial projections, exchange rate regimes, and Scotland’s likely treatment in international markets.
Why This Matters More Than Ever
Ian Stewart, who chairs the SCG’s banking and finance group, called the project “obviously necessary” after reviewing Laurentjoye’s previous research.
In his view, this report could be the thing that finally pushes the independence movement to prepare practically — not just ideologically.
“One of the big problems,” Stewart explained, “is that the GERS figures — which are trotted out every year — paint a dire picture. But those are based on UK-wide spending. They don’t reflect what Scotland would actually look like if it were independent.”
And while debates over GERS rage every year, the independence side has lacked an equivalent financial document to point to. Stewart says this report could be that.
Currency Readiness Could Make or Break Day One
There’s another, more immediate concern. What if Westminster plays hardball?
Stewart warned that relying on sterling without control of the interbank payment system — the system that processes electronic payments — could backfire spectacularly.
“Westminster could just shut it off. And that’s the nightmare scenario. People walk into shops or petrol stations and can’t pay. That would be a disaster.”
He says that’s why the new report must include a realistic plan for launching a Scottish currency from day one — whether or not the official policy is to transition slowly.
SNP’s Position Still Unchanged, For Now
The Scottish Government’s current policy, laid out in the 2022 white paper, is that Scotland would initially retain sterling after independence, then shift to a new currency — the Scottish pound — “as soon as practicable.”
That phrasing has frustrated parts of the independence base for years. It leaves the timeline vague and arguably opens the door for indefinite use of a currency Scotland wouldn’t control.
Rideout and Stewart argue that’s too risky.
“We can’t afford to be caught flat-footed,” Rideout said bluntly. “You need infrastructure ready to go, whether you use it on day one or day 100.”
One sentence here, to let it breathe.
What Will Be In the Final Report?
The 2026 version of Laurentjoye’s report is expected to go beyond the Welsh paper in scope and detail. According to SCG, it’ll include estimates and projections on:
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Exchange Rate Options | Fixed, floating, pegged regimes — with pros and cons |
| Balance of Payments | Projections under various currency setups |
| FX Market Expectations | Anticipated reactions from global markets |
| Legal Framework | What legislation an independent Scotland would need |
| Transition Strategy | Steps and timeline for launching a national currency |
This level of detail, Rideout said, is what’s been missing from the independence debate for years.
Political Will Still the Big Unknown
Even with an academic report in hand, it remains to be seen whether the SNP — currently in a leadership transition and under pressure from both Labour and Reform UK — will pivot on currency.
Rideout has submitted currency motions to past SNP conferences, including one in 2019 that gained broad grassroots support. But that hasn’t translated into policy change.
“There’s been a reluctance at the top,” he said. “Maybe this report can change that.”
The SNP leadership is expected to face pressure from grassroots groups to review the findings when the first version of the report drops later this year. Whether that will shift their stance is unclear.
What is clear: the currency debate is far from settled. But for once, there’s hope that an answer — a real, workable answer — might finally be in sight.
