It has been nearly a year since the Scottish Government formally declared a national housing emergency, yet the situation on the ground shows few signs of improvement. New figures suggest the delivery of homes — particularly affordable housing — is in sharp decline. The private sector is often blamed, but leading voices within the industry argue that the roots of the problem lie elsewhere: in how we understand, allocate, and plan to deliver land.
The most recent quarterly housing statistics, published on 25 March 2025, paint a bleak picture:
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A 7% drop in overall new home completions year-on-year
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A staggering 22% decrease in the number of affordable homes completed
These numbers suggest a system struggling to respond to housing need, despite the Scottish Government’s claims that ample consented land exists — enough, it says, for 164,000 homes in central Scotland alone.
But that headline figure may be misleading.
“We don’t have a land shortage. We have a deliverability problem.”
According to Catherine Wood, Development Director at Lovell Strategic Land, the idea that developers are sitting on vast landbanks and dragging their feet doesn’t reflect the complex reality of modern housebuilding in Scotland.
“The government often says the land is there, and the private sector isn’t building fast enough,” she says. “But much of this so-called pipeline land is not actually deliverable — not in this economic climate, and not at the speed or scale required.”
This disconnect between land supply on paper and real-world deliverability has become a central tension in Scotland’s housing debate.
While national planning frameworks, such as NPF4 and the Planning (Scotland) Act 2019, aim to streamline and accelerate development, industry insiders argue that the current planning process is still lengthy, risky, and often inefficient.
“It takes over five years on average to bring a site from early planning to construction. In major growth areas, it can take decades,” Wood explains.
In the meantime, the viability of a site can shift dramatically, influenced by:
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Economic instability
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Changes to sustainability requirements
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Rising material and labour costs
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Infrastructure delays
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Shifting buyer demand
Misunderstood dynamics: not all land is equal
While government data may reflect a large quantity of consented land, it often fails to consider whether the land is in the right location, with the right infrastructure, and with realistic development potential.
“In some cases, land has been allocated with nothing more than a red line on a map, no technical feasibility work, and no consideration of local demand,” says Wood. “If no one wants to live there, and if the infrastructure costs don’t stack up, developers simply can’t justify building. That’s not land banking — that’s economic reality.”
And yet, the accusation of land banking continues to dog the sector. According to Wood, this perception issue is exacerbated by 10-year Local Development Plan (LDP) cycles, which can trap developers in long-term contracts while they wait for planning decisions — adding delay and cost, rather than accelerating progress.
The truth about Scotland’s ‘housing pipeline’
| Type of Land | The Promise | The Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Consented Land | Often cited as proof of ample supply | May be in remote or low-demand areas, or lack infrastructure |
| Pipeline Land | Appears in official stats | Can include sites years from development or financially unviable |
| Affordable Housing Land | Policy priority | Often hardest to deliver without public funding and incentives |
A shift in mindset: From availability to deliverability
Wood argues that policymakers need to fundamentally reframe how they think about land. The current focus on how much land is theoretically available ignores the question of what’s truly deliverable in today’s market.
“We urgently need to re-evaluate many of the sites already allocated. If they can’t realistically deliver homes in the next few years, they should be replaced with ones that can.”
This would mean closer collaboration between strategic land promoters, housebuilders, and local authorities, and a more nuanced understanding of market demand, site readiness, and infrastructure alignment.
Planning reform alone isn’t enough
While NPF4 and the 2019 Planning Act aim to simplify processes and promote sustainable development, they may be insufficient without deeper reform to how land is assessed, allocated, and supported post-allocation.
Wood stresses that better alignment between policy ambitions and economic viability is essential, especially if Scotland is serious about scaling up mixed-tenure housing, including social and affordable homes.
“We need to bring forward the right land in the right locations — and at the right scale. That’s when the numbers add up, and that’s when the homes get built.”
What’s next?
To shift gears on housing delivery, Scotland must:
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Conduct a fresh audit of pipeline and allocated land based on deliverability, not just planning status
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Improve collaboration between developers, planners, and local government
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Shorten or add flexibility to planning cycles to reduce stagnation
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Reassess how infrastructure investment supports new developments
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Tackle misconceptions about the industry’s intentions and constraints
At the heart of the crisis is a simple mismatch between policy and practice. Until that gap is bridged, the downward trend in housing completions may well continue — despite all appearances of a land-rich pipeline.
