Scotland’s population is set to grow significantly over the next two decades, largely driven by inward migration, according to new projections released by the National Records of Scotland (NRS). The estimates show that Scotland’s population will reach 5.8 million by 2047, marking a notable increase from the current population of 5.44 million. However, this growth is largely dependent on the influx of migrants, as the country is projected to experience more deaths than births in the coming years.
Growth Through Migration
The NRS report highlights the crucial role that migration will play in offsetting Scotland’s declining birth rate. The projections suggest that without migration, the population would have actually decreased. Between 2011 and 2022, there were more deaths than births, resulting in a natural decline of approximately 49,800 people. However, migration has helped to reverse this trend, with estimates predicting a population increase of 4.4% over the next decade (from 2022 to 2032) and a 6.2% increase by 2047.
The influx of people into Scotland is expected to continue, with the report showing that Scotland’s population will grow at a slower pace than the UK as a whole. The UK population is projected to increase by 13.2% by 2047, reaching 76.6 million, while Scotland’s share of the UK’s total population will decrease from 8.1% to 7.6%.
Aging Population
Alongside the overall population growth, the NRS report also indicates that Scotland will see an aging demographic. By 2047, the number of people aged 75 and older is projected to rise by 341,300, reflecting the broader trend of an aging population across the developed world. This shift will put additional pressure on healthcare services, pensions, and social care systems.
On the other hand, the number of children under the age of 15 is expected to decline by 79,900 by 2047, and the population of young adults (ages 16-29) will also fall by 57,300. This decline in younger age groups poses challenges for the workforce and future economic growth, highlighting the need for targeted immigration policies to address potential labour shortages.
The Role of Migration in Scotland’s Future
The NRS projections underscore the importance of migration in shaping Scotland’s future population dynamics. While the country continues to face demographic challenges, especially with a falling birth rate, migration is expected to be a key factor in sustaining population growth. As Scotland continues to attract migrants, the government will need to adapt policies to accommodate this influx while addressing the needs of an aging population.
