Labour gains ground in Scotland as SNP faces challenges

How the polls show a shift in voter preferences

  • A recent poll by the Scottish Election Survey suggests that Labour has a six-point lead over the SNP in Westminster voting intentions.
  • Another poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies puts the SNP and Labour at a tie with 32% each.
  • The polls indicate a trend of some voters moving from the SNP to Labour, especially for the UK General Election, which could be held next year.
  • The SNP still has a stronger lead in the Scottish Parliament election, with 34% compared to Labour’s 30%.

What are the reasons behind the SNP’s difficulties

  • The SNP faces media scrutiny over its party finances, which are under police investigation.
  • The SNP also faces defections to Alba, a new pro-independence party led by former SNP leader Alex Salmond.
  • The SNP has been criticized for its handling of some Covid WhatsApp messages, which were not fully disclosed to the UK Covid Inquiry.
  • The SNP has been accused of being too slow and cautious in pursuing a second referendum on independence.

labour scotland snp polls

How Labour is trying to appeal to Scottish voters

  • Labour is presenting itself as the best option to oust the Tories from power in the UK, arguing that voting SNP would not make a difference.
  • Labour is also trying to distance itself from its UK leader Keir Starmer, who has been seen as lacking empathy and humanity on the issue of Gaza.
  • Labour’s Scottish leader Anas Sarwar has called for a ceasefire in Gaza and has criticized Starmer’s stance.
  • Labour is also trying to win back Muslim voters, who have been alienated by Starmer’s handling of anti-Semitism allegations within the party.

What are the implications for the independence movement

  • The polls suggest that support for independence is higher than support for the SNP, meaning that some independence supporters are not willing to vote for the SNP.
  • The polls also show that the SNP needs to address the concerns and frustrations of its core supporters, who want more action and urgency on independence.
  • The polls also indicate that the independence movement is not a monolith, and that there are different views and strategies among its supporters.
  • The polls also highlight the challenges of achieving independence in the face of a hostile UK government and media.

What are the uncertainties and risks ahead

  • The polls are not definitive and could change before the next elections, depending on various factors such as the Covid situation, the Brexit impact, and the political scandals.
  • The polls are also based on samples and methods that may not reflect the true opinions and preferences of the Scottish electorate.
  • The polls also do not capture the dynamics and complexities of the electoral system, which could produce different outcomes than the polls suggest.
  • The polls also do not account for the possibility of unexpected events or developments that could alter the political landscape.
By Ishan Crawford

Prior to the position, Ishan was senior vice president, strategy & development for Cumbernauld-media Company since April 2013. He joined the Company in 2004 and has served in several corporate developments, business development and strategic planning roles for three chief executives. During that time, he helped transform the Company from a traditional U.S. media conglomerate into a global digital subscription service, unified by the journalism and brand of Cumbernauld-media.

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