Labour gains ground in Scotland as SNP faces challenges


How the polls show a shift in voter preferences

  • A recent poll by the Scottish Election Survey suggests that Labour has a six-point lead over the SNP in Westminster voting intentions.
  • Another poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies puts the SNP and Labour at a tie with 32% each.
  • The polls indicate a trend of some voters moving from the SNP to Labour, especially for the UK General Election, which could be held next year.
  • The SNP still has a stronger lead in the Scottish Parliament election, with 34% compared to Labour’s 30%.

What are the reasons behind the SNP’s difficulties

  • The SNP faces media scrutiny over its party finances, which are under police investigation.
  • The SNP also faces defections to Alba, a new pro-independence party led by former SNP leader Alex Salmond.
  • The SNP has been criticized for its handling of some Covid WhatsApp messages, which were not fully disclosed to the UK Covid Inquiry.
  • The SNP has been accused of being too slow and cautious in pursuing a second referendum on independence.

labour scotland snp polls

How Labour is trying to appeal to Scottish voters

  • Labour is presenting itself as the best option to oust the Tories from power in the UK, arguing that voting SNP would not make a difference.
  • Labour is also trying to distance itself from its UK leader Keir Starmer, who has been seen as lacking empathy and humanity on the issue of Gaza.
  • Labour’s Scottish leader Anas Sarwar has called for a ceasefire in Gaza and has criticized Starmer’s stance.
  • Labour is also trying to win back Muslim voters, who have been alienated by Starmer’s handling of anti-Semitism allegations within the party.

What are the implications for the independence movement

  • The polls suggest that support for independence is higher than support for the SNP, meaning that some independence supporters are not willing to vote for the SNP.
  • The polls also show that the SNP needs to address the concerns and frustrations of its core supporters, who want more action and urgency on independence.
  • The polls also indicate that the independence movement is not a monolith, and that there are different views and strategies among its supporters.
  • The polls also highlight the challenges of achieving independence in the face of a hostile UK government and media.

What are the uncertainties and risks ahead

  • The polls are not definitive and could change before the next elections, depending on various factors such as the Covid situation, the Brexit impact, and the political scandals.
  • The polls are also based on samples and methods that may not reflect the true opinions and preferences of the Scottish electorate.
  • The polls also do not capture the dynamics and complexities of the electoral system, which could produce different outcomes than the polls suggest.
  • The polls also do not account for the possibility of unexpected events or developments that could alter the political landscape.


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