Scotland has recorded its largest annual rise in carbon emissions in over 20 years, with new government data revealing a sharp 15% increase in the national carbon footprint between 2020 and 2021.
The country’s footprint — which accounts for the climate impact of all goods and services consumed in Scotland, including imported products, domestic travel, heating, and more — rose from 52 million tonnes to 59 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions.
The figures, released on 8 April 2025, mark a dramatic rebound in climate-harming emissions following the pandemic-related slowdown in global economic activity.
Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels — and Beyond
While emissions had been gradually falling in the years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic — and dipped sharply during the global shutdown — the latest data shows that 2021 saw a strong rebound in consumer demand, particularly for imported goods.
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2020 emissions: 52 million tonnes
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2021 emissions: 59 million tonnes
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Annual increase: +7 million tonnes
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Percentage change: +15%
- “This is the biggest annual rise since carbon footprint records began 23 years ago,” a Scottish Government spokesperson confirmed.
Imported Goods Drive Surge
The primary culprit in this rise? Imported goods.
These emissions, which are not counted under Scotland’s domestic climate targets, make up a significant — and growing — part of the country’s overall footprint. While Scotland may cut emissions at home, the rise in imported products shifts much of the environmental burden overseas.
Critics say this loophole undermines Scotland’s global climate commitments.
Kim Pratt, circular economy campaigner at Friends of the Earth Scotland, called the figures “alarming.”
“The massive jump in our emissions, taking us back to pre-pandemic levels, shows that adequate action is not being taken,” said Pratt. “Reducing our emissions from imported goods is essential to make a real impact.”
New Circular Economy Law — A Turning Point?
Scotland passed a new circular economy law last year, aimed at reducing waste and rethinking how materials are used. The legislation includes plans to set consumption-based targets, potentially bringing emissions from imported goods into formal climate metrics for the first time.
Environmental campaigners argue that without such targets, Scotland risks outsourcing its environmental impact to other countries — while appearing cleaner on paper.
“The circular economy law is an opportunity to finally get a grip on this problem,” said Pratt. “The government must put strong consumption targets at the heart of its circular economy strategy.”
Policy Gap Widens
The 2021 spike exposes a policy gap between Scotland’s legally binding domestic emissions targets — which focus on sectors like transport, energy, and agriculture — and the broader environmental footprint of its economy.
While homegrown emissions have shown signs of decline in recent years, consumption emissions — from imported food, fashion, electronics, and building materials — have remained stubbornly high, now accounting for the majority of Scotland’s total footprint.
And because they fall outside traditional measurement frameworks, they’ve largely escaped political scrutiny.
Looking Ahead
The Scottish Government has said it is reviewing how consumption-based emissions will be integrated into its long-term strategy, with officials pointing to the circular economy law as a key step forward.
But the scale of the recent rebound raises new questions about the resilience of Scotland’s climate strategy. If economic recovery after a global crisis leads to an emissions surge, are the current policy tools fit for purpose?
For campaigners, the answer is clear: only by embedding material use, supply chains, and global impact into national climate policy can Scotland truly live up to its environmental ambitions.
