Labour’s landslide victory in Scotland during the UK general election was nothing short of historic. With a 16-point swing from the SNP, Keir Starmer’s party secured 37 Scottish seats at Westminster, marking a return to dominance unseen since 2010. But as the political tide shifts towards the 2026 Holyrood elections, the party faces a starkly different reality. Recent polling suggests Labour could be heading for its worst Scottish parliamentary election performance since devolution, with just 18% of voters backing Anas Sarwar’s leadership.
The SNP, despite a turbulent period that saw two leadership changes in just over a year, appears poised to remain the largest party at Holyrood. First Minister John Swinney, having steadied the nationalist ship, now finds his party in a commanding position once again.
Labour’s Policy Challenges and the SNP’s Tactical Gains
A major factor in Labour’s decline north of the border has been the unpopularity of key policy decisions made by the Starmer government. Early cuts to winter fuel payments angered pensioners, while the decision to maintain the two-child welfare cap and reject compensation for the Waspi women—those impacted by changes to the state pension age—generated widespread discontent.
These policies were unpopular across the UK, but in Scotland, the SNP capitalized on them in ways the opposition in England could not. By refocusing on economic and social justice issues rather than identity politics, Swinney has rebranded the SNP as the party defending Scottish interests against Westminster austerity.
One of the biggest surprises in recent polling has been the rise of Reform UK in Scotland. Previously seen as an English nationalist party with little traction north of the border, Reform UK now commands 14% support for Holyrood, siphoning votes away from Labour, particularly among older, working-class unionist men. If these numbers hold, Reform UK could secure around 15 Holyrood seats, further complicating Labour’s electoral calculus.
Sarwar’s Balancing Act Between London and Edinburgh
Labour’s struggle in Scotland is not just about bad optics or voter sentiment—it is also a policy conundrum. Starmer’s government has taken steps to improve pay for public sector workers, a move well-received in Scotland. However, Labour remains boxed in between the fiscal conservatism of Westminster and the SNP’s costly but popular universalist welfare policies.
For Sarwar, this dilemma is a defining moment. While Labour commands Westminster, it lacks a clear and distinct agenda for Scotland that resonates with voters. His leadership now faces a crucial test at the Scottish Labour conference in Glasgow, where he will address delegates ahead of Starmer’s speech.
The Road to Holyrood 2026: A Tough Battle Ahead
With more than a year to go before the Holyrood elections, the political landscape remains fluid. Several factors will determine whether Labour can regain its footing:
- Policy Clarity: Labour must present a Scottish manifesto that is not simply a carbon copy of Westminster policies but tailored to the needs and expectations of Scottish voters.
- Reclaiming Unionist Votes: Reform UK’s surge is an existential threat to Labour in Scotland. Finding a strategy to bring disaffected unionist voters back into the fold will be crucial.
- Economic Vision: As the SNP continues to champion a Scotland-first economic and social policy, Labour must offer a credible alternative that balances fiscal responsibility with social investment.
- Leadership Perception: Sarwar’s ability to differentiate himself from Starmer while maintaining party unity will be key in how voters view Labour as a governing force for Scotland.
The SNP may not be riding a wave of overwhelming enthusiasm, but its ability to stay ahead in a fragmented landscape is a warning sign for Labour. Without a decisive shift in strategy, the party’s hopes of translating its Westminster gains into Holyrood success may prove elusive.
