Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has openly criticized some of his own party’s MPs as idiotic for secretly pushing to replace UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of the May 2026 Holyrood election. With polls showing Labour slipping to fourth place behind the SNP, Reform UK, and the Scottish Greens, Sarwar is urging Starmer to stay away from the campaign trail in Scotland to avoid further damage.
This move highlights growing tensions within Labour as the party grapples with Starmer’s unpopularity and government missteps, which have eroded support north of the border. The election on May 7, 2026, could reshape Scotland’s political landscape and even test the unity of the United Kingdom.
Labour’s Sharp Decline in Polls
Recent surveys paint a grim picture for Scottish Labour. Just months ago, after the 2024 general election, the party seemed poised to take power in Holyrood for the first time in nearly two decades.
Now, with the vote four months away, Labour trails in key polls. One major survey from early January 2026 places them behind the SNP at around 30 percent, Reform UK at 22 percent, and the Greens at 18 percent, with Labour hovering at 15 percent.
This slide stems from widespread dissatisfaction with the UK government’s decisions, including cuts to winter fuel payments and perceived failures in handling the economy. Voters in Scotland feel let down, especially after Labour promised no austerity during the last campaign.
Analysts point to Starmer’s low approval ratings, which have dipped below 30 percent nationwide, as a major factor dragging down Scottish Labour. Local by-elections have shown some resilience, but national trends suggest a tough road ahead.
Anas Sarwar’s Bold Strategy Shift
Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour’s leader, is trying to distance his campaign from Westminster’s troubles. In a speech on January 5, 2026, he admitted Starmer is unpopular and urged the prime minister and cabinet members to limit their involvement in Scotland.
Sarwar insists he can win in defiance of these challenges by focusing on local issues like the NHS, education, and economic growth. He has called out internal critics, labeling anonymous briefings against Starmer as idiotic and demanding they step forward.
This approach aims to reframe the election as a choice about Scotland’s future, not a referendum on the UK government. Party insiders believe bold policies on public services could help regain ground.
However, critics argue Sarwar’s ties to Starmer make this separation difficult. He has emphasized protecting Scotland from UK-wide cuts, but some voters see it as inconsistent given Labour MPs’ support for those measures.
SNP’s Steady Hold on Power
The SNP, led by John Swinney, remains the frontrunner despite its own challenges after years in office. The party has capitalized on Labour’s woes by highlighting its progressive policies, such as maintaining free tuition and boosting NHS funding.
Recent budgets from the SNP have closed off attack lines for opponents, making it hard for Labour to promise meaningful change without contradicting UK Labour stances.
- Key SNP strengths include strong support for independence, which still resonates with about 45 percent of Scots according to January 2026 polls.
- The party has focused on anti-austerity measures, like scrapping the two-child benefit cap in Scotland.
- Efforts to improve public services have helped stabilize their lead.
Polls show the SNP could secure around 40 seats in the 129-seat parliament, potentially enough to form a minority government or coalition.
Voter fatigue with the SNP’s long rule exists, but Labour’s troubles have given them breathing room. Independence remains a divisive issue, with recent events like economic uncertainty post-Brexit influencing debates.
Rise of Reform UK and Scottish Greens
Reform UK, under Nigel Farage’s influence, has surged in Scottish polls, appealing to disaffected voters with promises of lower taxes and tougher immigration controls. Their anti-establishment message has eaten into both Labour and Conservative support.
The Scottish Greens, meanwhile, are gaining traction on environmental issues and social justice, positioning themselves as potential kingmakers in a hung parliament.
Here’s a quick look at recent poll averages from major sources in early 2026:
| Party | Poll Percentage | Projected Seats |
|---|---|---|
| SNP | 30% | 40-45 |
| Reform UK | 22% | 25-30 |
| Scottish Greens | 18% | 15-20 |
| Scottish Labour | 15% | 10-15 |
| Conservatives | 10% | 8-12 |
This table illustrates the fragmented landscape, where no party is likely to win a majority.
Both parties have criticized Labour’s handling of key issues, with Reform focusing on economic failures and the Greens on climate inaction.
Potential Outcomes and UK Implications
The May 2026 election could decide more than just Holyrood’s control. A strong SNP showing might reignite calls for another independence referendum, challenging the UK’s stability.
If Labour fails badly, it could trigger internal upheaval, including leadership questions for both Sarwar and Starmer. Experts predict a coalition government is likely, possibly involving the Greens or even cross-party deals.
Recent events, like the UK government’s budget controversies in late 2025, have amplified these risks. Scotland’s economy, hit by energy price fluctuations and post-pandemic recovery, will be a key battleground.
Voters are watching closely, with turnout expected to be high amid these high stakes.
Challenges Ahead for Scottish Politics
Scottish politics is at a crossroads, with public services straining under funding pressures. The NHS waiting times have become a flashpoint, with Labour pledging reforms but facing skepticism.
Economic issues, including rising living costs, dominate voter concerns. Parties are scrambling to offer solutions, from tax adjustments to green energy investments.
As the campaign heats up, expect more twists, including policy announcements and debates. The outcome could reshape alliances and priorities for years.
What do you think about the upcoming Holyrood election? Share your views in the comments and spread the word to keep the conversation going.
