New figures paint a stark picture of cancer care in Scotland. Waiting times for treatment have now reached their worst levels since records began.
The numbers — quietly released by Public Health Scotland — reveal that nearly one in three people referred with an urgent suspicion of cancer are now waiting longer than the government’s official 62-day target for treatment to begin.
Only 68.9% Treated on Time — Lowest Ever on Record
Let that sink in: fewer than 7 in 10 cancer patients referred urgently are starting treatment on time. That figure — 68.9% — covers January to March 2025. It’s not just a blip. It’s a slide.
It’s the lowest percentage ever recorded since the current tracking system was introduced a decade ago. And it’s not just about percentages. It’s about people. Thousands of them.
In total, 4,373 patients were referred with an urgent suspicion of cancer during this three-month window. That’s actually up 1.5% from the previous quarter — so while demand is rising, the system seems to be buckling.
And it’s not just the 62-day target that’s being missed.
The 31-Day Standard Is Slipping Too
There’s another metric — the 31-day standard. This one tracks how long it takes to start treatment after a decision to treat has been made.
Even here, where Scotland typically performs better, the latest data shows a dip.
Only 94.1% of patients started treatment within that timeframe — falling short of the government’s 95% target. It’s close, yes. But close doesn’t cut it when patients are waiting for surgery, chemotherapy, or radiation.
Here’s how it breaks down:
| Standard | Target | Actual (Q1 2025) | Previous Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62-day urgent referral | 95% | 68.9% | 72.1% |
| 31-day post-decision to treat | 95% | 94.1% | 95.3% |
Only NHS Lanarkshire hit the 62-day standard — the sole health board to do so. Every other area fell short.
More Patients, Less Speed — A System Under Pressure
So what’s going wrong?
It’s not a simple answer. There’s no single bottleneck. Instead, it’s more like a tangle of issues, each one tightening the knot:
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Staff shortages across oncology departments
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Diagnostic delays leading to longer referral chains
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Backlogs from COVID-era disruption still lingering
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Limited capacity in treatment centres and specialist wards
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Increased referrals, with cancer incidence steadily rising
One oncologist from Lothian, who asked not to be named, said: “The target is still the target. But if you’ve got no radiographers, no appointment slots, no bed space… what can you do?”
That frustration is echoed in GP surgeries too. Patients are being flagged quickly — but delays hit after the referral.
Political Pressure Mounts, But Promises Wear Thin
Scottish ministers have long promised to improve cancer care. Just last year, the government announced new “early diagnosis centres” and a plan to speed up access to treatment.
But so far, those efforts haven’t translated into faster outcomes. And with each passing quarter, the numbers are worsening.
One health policy researcher described the new figures as “deeply concerning but sadly unsurprising.”
MSPs across opposition benches are already calling for an urgent review. But campaigners want more than press releases. They want workforce guarantees, clearer accountability, and timelines for delivery.
What These Delays Actually Mean for Patients
Behind each percentage point is a real person — often scared, confused, and in pain.
Waiting longer for treatment isn’t just stressful. It’s dangerous. In some cancers, even a few weeks can make a life-or-death difference.
Delays can result in:
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Tumours progressing to more advanced stages
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More aggressive treatment being required later
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Reduced survival rates, especially in fast-growing cancers
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Longer recovery times and lower quality of life
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Increased mental health pressure during the wait
Patients talk of feeling forgotten. Families speak of avoidable suffering. And clinicians, already overstretched, report burnout and moral injury.
Historic Data Shows a Downward Drift
The trend isn’t new — but it’s accelerating.
Public Health Scotland’s data shows a steady decline in meeting the 62-day standard:
| Quarter | % Treated Within 62 Days |
|---|---|
| Apr–Jun 2023 | 73.2% |
| Jul–Sep 2023 | 72.1% |
| Jan–Mar 2025 | 68.9% |
The further the numbers fall, the harder it becomes to restore public confidence — or regain lost ground in patient outcomes.
Some experts argue that a new baseline is quietly forming. If so, that could have ripple effects across NHS performance targets in other serious diseases.
So, Where’s It Going From Here?
The truth is: nobody knows for sure.
Scotland’s healthcare system faces structural challenges — from demographics to infrastructure — that won’t be solved overnight.
A new cancer strategy is due to be published later this year. It’s expected to include workforce planning, digital diagnostics, and AI-powered triage tools.
But the people waiting on a scan, a biopsy, or a treatment plan? They don’t have the luxury of long timelines.
