The UK Government is pressing ahead with reforms to Personal Independence Payment (PIP), reshaping how health and disability benefits are assessed and distributed. While these changes will primarily impact England and Wales, the ripple effects on Scotland are significant, particularly for funding and future policies.
Changes to PIP and Their Timeline
Reforms to PIP are set to take effect after April 2026, by which point Scotland’s transition to Adult Disability Payment (ADP) should be complete. With 433,050 people already on ADP and just 35,420 remaining on PIP in Scotland as of January 2025, the shift is well underway. The key proposed changes include:
- A stricter eligibility threshold for daily living support, requiring a minimum of four points in one of ten activities.
- The return of more frequent face-to-face assessments, though the implementation date remains uncertain.
- Linking PIP to Universal Credit’s health-related additions, replacing the Work Capability Assessment by 2028-29.
- Raising the minimum qualifying age for PIP to 18.
Scotland’s Rejection of the Cuts
Scottish ministers have made it clear they will not follow Westminster’s lead in restricting access to disability benefits. Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville reinforced this stance, stating that cutting support would be “exceptionally detrimental” to those who rely on these payments.
The Scottish Government remains committed to a different approach—one shaped by consultation with disabled individuals and organizations. An independent review of ADP, due in July, is focused on making eligibility criteria clearer and more inclusive rather than seeking cost reductions.
Financial Impact on Scotland
While policy differences are clear, the financial implications are more complicated. Scotland’s funding for ADP is tied to what the UK Government spends on PIP, via the Block Grant Adjustment (BGA). If Westminster’s changes lead to lower spending on PIP, Scotland’s budget could shrink accordingly.
Forecasts from the Scottish Fiscal Commission in December 2024 estimated that Scotland would be spending around £381 million more annually on ADP than it receives from the BGA by the end of the decade. The gap could widen further if UK-wide PIP spending falls faster than expected.
Uncertainty is a recurring theme. The BGA is based on UK-wide spending forecasts, but adjustments are made later to reflect actual expenditures. If Westminster’s reforms fail to deliver the predicted savings, Scotland may recover some lost funding in future budgets.
The Role of ADP in Universal Credit
One of the biggest unknowns is whether Scotland will align ADP with PIP as a gateway to Universal Credit’s health-related additions. Currently, PIP eligibility determines access to these benefits in England and Wales. If ADP remains more accessible than PIP, it’s unclear how this will affect Scottish claimants of Universal Credit.
For now, ADP and PIP are treated equally in benefit calculations. But as the systems diverge, the UK Government may reassess whether ADP remains a qualifying factor for Universal Credit health supplements. The Scottish Government will need to engage with Westminster to clarify how future claimants will be assessed.
Rising Disability Caseloads in Scotland
The UK-wide increase in disability benefit claims has prompted these reforms in England and Wales. But Scotland is also seeing a sharp rise in claimants. Between March 2022 and January 2025, the number of people receiving either PIP or ADP in Scotland surged by 51%, from 310,545 to 468,470.
This trend raises difficult questions for Scottish policymakers. Maintaining an inclusive and generous ADP system is a priority, but funding constraints could force future adjustments. The forthcoming Scottish Fiscal Commission forecasts in May will provide a clearer picture of the long-term financial sustainability of ADP.
What Comes Next?
The UK Government’s PIP reforms won’t directly change the benefits available in Scotland, but they will influence funding, future policy decisions, and how ADP interacts with the wider welfare system.
With more details expected in the Spring Statement on March 26 and updated financial forecasts in May, the Scottish Government will need to stay ahead of the changes to protect its social security commitments while managing budgetary pressures. For those who rely on disability benefits, the coming years will be crucial in shaping their future support.
