A new opinion poll in Scotland has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, showing significant shifts in voter preferences and a dramatic decline in Labour’s support.
According to Norstat UK Political Polling, Labour’s support in Scotland has plummeted to just 20%, a 3-percentage-point drop from previous figures. Meanwhile, both the SNP (Scottish National Party) and Reform UK have seen small increases, rising by 1 percentage point each to 31% and 15%, respectively.
Labour’s ‘Wipeout’ in Seat Projections
The polling data paints a dire picture for Labour’s prospects in Scotland. When translated into Westminster seat projections, Labour is on track to lose 25 seats, which represents a staggering 67% of its current Scottish representation. This would mark a devastating blow for Starmer’s party, which had won 37 out of 57 seats in Scotland in July 2024.
If these trends hold, most of these lost seats would be claimed by the SNP, which is on track to recover almost all of the seats it lost to Labour earlier in the year. Despite a minor drop in support, the Conservatives would manage to gain one seat, increasing their overall presence in the Scottish Parliament.
Reform UK’s Surge and Distribution of Support
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has emerged as a significant player in Scotland, surging to 15% support in the poll. However, due to the First Past The Post system used in Westminster elections, the party’s support is spread thin across various constituencies, meaning it is unlikely to gain any seats in this election.
Despite trailing slightly behind Reform UK, the Conservative Party remains a key player, though it is expected to remain at the fringes of major gains.
The Impact on Scottish Politics
This shift in political allegiance, with many voters leaving Labour for the SNP and Reform UK, marks a pivotal moment in Scottish politics. The rise of Reform UK, while not yet strong enough to secure seats, signals growing discontent with traditional political parties in the region, and underscores the changing dynamics ahead of the next general election.
With Labour’s Scottish base weakening and the SNP regaining ground, the battle for control of Scottish seats in Westminster is poised to intensify, creating a new political landscape that will require adaptation and strategy from all parties involved.